Emma Farge and Tom Balmforth

GENEVA, Reuters – Diplomats are publicly pessimistic as the United States began hard negotiations in Geneva Monday. Washington hopes to avoid the risk of a Russian invasion of Ukraine and not have to compromise on the Kremlin’s vast security requirements.

Sergei Ryabkov, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister, stated that it is possible for diplomacy to end in one meeting. Antony Blinken (U.S. Secretary Of State) played down the expectations of high-stakes negotiations.

In a CNN interview, Blinken stated that “I don’t believe we’re going to experience any breakthroughs within the coming week.”

On Monday, the U.S. diplomatic missions in Geneva opened talks. Relations between the U.S. and Russia are now at their worst since the Cold War. The talks will move to Brussels and Vienna.

Wendy Sherman (Deputy Secretary of States), is No. The No. 2 U.S. State Department official, Wendy Sherman, Deputy Secretary of State, stated in a tweet from Geneva that the U.S. would listen to Russia and also share its concerns. She stated that no discussions about European security will be possible without other allies.

Eight years after Russia took the Crimea peninsula, Ukraine, nearly 100,000 Russian soldiers have been gathered near the Ukrainian border in preparation of what Washington and Kyiv call an invasion.

Russia denied any invasion plans, and stated that it was responding to the NATO military alliance’s aggressive and provocative behavior and Ukraine. Ukraine has tilted towards the West and wants to be a NATO member.

Russia submitted a broad set of demands to NATO last month. These include the ban on NATO expanding further and the end to NATO activity in Central and Eastern European countries which joined after 1997.

NATO and the United States have rejected large portions of Russian proposals, prompting questions about the possibility for a middle ground.

Ryabkov, the Russian representative in Geneva, stated that “Naturally we will not make any compromises under pressure.”

SANCTIONS THREAT

U.S. President Joe Biden warned Russian President Vladimir Putin repeatedly that sanctions could lead to a “complete breakdown in ties” with the United States. Putin replied that sanctions could cause a “complete breakdown of ties.”

Sherman stressed Washington’s commitments in a meeting on Sunday with Ryabkov, the State Department stated.

Ryabkov stated to journalists that Sherman’s meeting was complex but professional, Russian news agency Interfax reported.

Ryabkov likened the present situation to 1962’s Cuban missile crisis, which saw the world on the edge of nuclear war.

Both the United States of America and its allies indicated they were open to the idea that each side might limit military operations and missile deployments within the region.

Blinken announced on Sunday that the two sides will make proposals and determine if it is possible to move forward.

A source close to the matter said that the United States is discussing trade restrictions with partners and allies in Europe and Asia, in case diplomacy does not work and Moscow attacks Ukraine.

This restriction would affect critical Russian industries, like defense and civil aviation. It could also impact Russia’s high tech ambitions such as quantum computing and artificial intelligence.

Andrey Kortunov is an analyst and heads the Russian International Affairs Council. He said Ryabkov was more hawkish that some Russian security officials, but would still be flexible as required by the Kremlin.

Kortunov stated that “At last it’s up Mr Putin to determine the redlines, not Ryabkov. Ryabkov is going to do his best, to articulate those redlines.”