Gloria Dickie

(Reuters) – The thawing of permafrost may put up to 50% of Arctic infrastructure at risk by 2050. This could require tens billions in repairs and maintenance, scientists warned Tuesday.

The world’s permafrost — land that remains frozen year-round — has been warming at between 0.3 and 1.0 degree Celsius per decade since the 1980s, with some areas of the High Arctic having increased by more than 3°C over four decades, according to a scientific review of research from the last two decades published in the journal Nature Reviews Earth & Environment.

That’s enough to thaw much of the long-frozen ground. In northern Russia, Alaska, Canada, certain roads already buckle and foundations cracking.

“Infrastructure is in trouble,” said report co-author Dmitry Streletskiy, a geographer at George Washington University. “But it’s not like an earthquake. It’s a relatively slow process, which gives us enough time” to prevent some damage.

This trend is expected to continue, scientists predict. Based on satellite imagery they estimated that approximately 120,000 buildings, 40,000 km (24,585 miles) of roads and 9,500km (5,900 mi) of pipelines may be in danger. This highlights the threat to Trans-Alaska Pipeline System and some Canadian highways.

However, people continue to build in the Arctic. According to another report published in Environmental Research Letters last year, satellite images have shown that the area of coastal infrastructure has grown by 15%, or 180 km (70 miles) since 2000. About 70 percent of that growth is linked to the oil and gas industry, especially on Russia’s Yamal Peninsula and near the Yamburg gas field, according to that study’s lead author, Annett Bartsch, a polar researcher with the Austrian-based b.geos research and consultancy group.

“There are a lot of new roads and rail tracks,” Bartsch said.

Permafrost construction can be costly. Engineers employ a number of strategies. To keep frozen ground steady, engineers place heat diverting pipes on roads and foundations.

Maintenance costs for major infrastructure could increase by $15.5 billion by mid-century, but would still be unable to prevent some $21.6 billion in damages, according to the review paper’s most conservative estimates.

For decades, researchers have focused on monitoring the carbon long locked in permafrost https://graphics.reuters.com/CLIMATE-CHANGE/PERMAFROST/oakveelglvr, worrying that the release of climate-warming carbon dioxide and methane could push the world toward runaway global warming.

But “the impact on infrastructure is already happening today,” said Vladimir Romanovsky, a geophysicist at the University of Alaska Fairbanks whose research was among the more than 160 studies assessed in the review. “It’s much more urgent for people who live and work on permafrost.”