Russia is risking all-out war to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO
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Russia’s President Vladimir Putin and Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy attend a Normandy Four summit. This format involves representatives of Russia, France, Germany and France who meet in the Murat lounge in the Elysee Palace to discuss the settlement of conflict in eastern Ukraine.
Mikhail Metzel | TASS | Getty Images
Russia’s dealings — or, more accurately, its clashes — with the West have centered on one country which has been a particular flashpoint for confrontations in recent years: Ukraine.
The topic is back in the spotlight this week as a number of high-stakes talks between Russian and Western officials are held. They aim to reduce tensions between Russia’s neighbor and Russia.
A particular issue right now is whether Ukraine — something of a frontier country between Russia and the rest of Europe, and one which aspires to join the EU — could one day become a member of the western military alliance NATO.
Russia opposes the possibility.
CNBC offers a guide for Russia’s concern about Ukraine as the Russia Council meets NATO officials in Brussels.
What is Ukraine’s significance?
The 2014 Russian annexe of Crimea was a major blow to relations between European neighbours. Russia has also supported the pro-Russian rebellion in eastern Ukraine where fighting has been ongoing between pro-Russian forces and Ukrainian forces for the past few years.
However, tensions are increasing in recent months as multiple reports have suggested that Russian troops may be massing along the border to Ukraine. This has prompted widespread speculation that Russia is preparing an invasion of the country.
Russia denies it plans to do this repeatedly, and NATO, the EU, and USA have warned Russia about it, as President Joe Biden said to President Vladimir Putin in a telephone call Dec. 30. “respond decisively if Russia further invades Ukraine.”
However, it is unclear how far the West might go to help Ukraine.
Russia wants what?
Russia, along with other security issues, made several major demands to the West last month regarding Ukraine. in a draft security pact.
This demanded the U.S. to stop any further eastward expansion and that former Soviet states not be allowed to join NATO.
Russia requested that the U.S. refrain from establishing military bases in territories belonging to former Soviet nations that were not members of NATO or using their infrastructures for military purposes.
While Ukraine is not named in the draft agreement, it is an obvious target for Russia. Ukraine is also a Russian-aligned country, and is among other things, a former Soviet republic. NATO already includes the ex-Soviet states of Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia.
Russia has already, and often, expressed its dislike of U.S. missile defense complexes in Poland and Romania in Eastern Europe and the bolstering of NATO’s presence, in terms of “combat-ready battlegroups,” as NATO describes them, in the Baltic states and Poland.
The U.S. and NATO for their part have said already that Ukraine’s demands not to be accepted into NATO or that NATO reduce its deployments in Eastern Europe are “nonstarters”, according to U.S. Secretary Wendy Sherman, who was leading the delegation of the U.S. in negotiations with Russian officials in Geneva Monday.
While she noted that the U.S. had pushed back against Russia’s security proposals, her Russian counterpart Sergei Ryabkov said the talks, which lasted around seven hours, were “difficult” and signaled that Moscow’s demands had not changed, telling reporters “it’s absolutely mandatory to make sure that Ukraine never — never ever — becomes a member of NATO.”
Talks have not progressed on Monday. However, there are hopes for further talks between NATO and Russian officials in Brussels Wednesday and for more discussion at the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe in Vienna Thursday.
This is Russia’s response.
Putin has made no bones about The fact he thinks the break-up of the Soviet Union was a catastrophe for Russia, describing it as the “greatest geopolitical tragedy” of the 20th century.
Ukraine has a particular importance for Russia given its location — it stands as a bulwark between Russia and the eastern EU states — as well as a symbolic and historical importance for Russia, often being seen as a “jewel in the crown”The former Soviet Empire.
Putin has extolled the cultural, linguistic and economic ties Ukraine has with Russia, describing Russians and Ukrainians as being “one people” last year. He even wrote an essay on the subject, entitled “On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians.“
It is not universally accepted in Ukraine. President Volodymyr Zilensky’s government looks westward in search of economic assistance and geopolitical power, in particular in the years after Russian’s 2014 annexation Crimea.
Ukraine repeatedly stated its desire to join NATO and the EU, which is a powerful geopolitical punch in the stomach for Russia’s resurgent ambitions to retain power and influence within the region.
According to many strategists, Putin is a keen ally of Russia’s politics and has been acting as a president and prime minister since 1999.
Maximilian Hess, fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, told CNBC Tuesday that “Russia is not just seeking to prohibit Ukraine from joining the alliance — something it has sought to do since Ukraine’s 2008 NATO Membership Action Plan (MAP) application — but also to remove Ukraine from the Western sphere of influence to which it has moved since the 2014 Ukrainian Revolution.”
While NATO membership is symbolic in nature, Russia wouldn’t accept an increase in military support for Ukraine by the West.
What is Russia’s willingness to travel?
Officials from the west are left wondering how far Russia would go to stop Ukraine’s move toward Europe and West. They also need to expand their presence and influence in Ukraine.
The Russian delegation at talks Monday insisted there was no plan to invade Ukraine, but analysts don’t believe so.
CNBC’s Angela Stent told CNBC Tuesday that there could be a Russian invasion in Ukraine. She said that the Russian invasion of Ukraine could still occur at 50-50.
She said, “That danger is still there.”
Maximilian Hess also agreed and said that Russia was ready to fight, although he did not believe the Kremlin would want to wage war on any fronts other than the ones currently in conflict. “The risks of facing a sustained Guerilla Resistance would be high, particularly if the conflict reaches beyond Donetsk/Luhansk Oblasts,” Maximilian Hess stated.
Hess said that Russia needs a credible invasion threat to continue, but it is what was the main role in bringing America to the table.
“The risk of renewed or expanded Russian invasion — Ukraine of course already faces an ongoing Russian invasion of Crimea and proxy occupation of parts of Donetsk and Luhansk — has never fully receded these past 8 years and is unlikely to after these talks as maintaining the ability to restrict Ukraine’s potential success is still seen as key to the long term self preservation of the Kremlin,” he commented.
Tony Brenton, the former British Ambassador to Russia told CNBC Tuesday that both Russia and the U.S. want to avoid a military confrontationMoscow is simply looking to “accommodate” its needs.
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