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BOJ considering conducting analysis on inflation dynamics

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© Reuters. FILE PHOTO A man in a mask walks by the Bank of Japan headquarters during the COVID-19 outbreak that erupted in Tokyo, Japan on May 22, 2020. REUTERS/Kim Kyung Hoon

TOKYO, Reuters – Two sources close to the Bank of Japan’s thinking said that they are considering a detailed analysis of Japan’s price dynamics. They also want to determine whether any recent indicators of rising inflation could be sustained.

One source said that the central bank could release some findings in the quarterly outlook report, due next week at the policy review. Governor Haruhikokuroda may also elaborate during his post-meeting briefing.

According to another source, the BOJ board may also issue an order to staff next week at its policy meeting to examine whether current inflation can be sustained and under which mechanism. It could submit a report as soon as March to the board.

It is still not clear what the final decision will be, and that decision will be taken at Tuesday’s policy meeting.

According to sources, the BOJ has decided that it will keep its monetary policies unchanged at this meeting. It also plans to increase its inflation forecast for the fiscal years beginning in April.

Although inflation is still well below the BOJ’s target of 2%, recent increases in commodity prices have prompted more companies to raise their prices. Recent polls have shown that the perception of deflation is changing as a result of broadening price rises.

Core consumer inflation is expected to rise above 1.5% in April according to some analysts. The drag of last year’s cell phone fees cuts will taper and the past increases in oil costs drive up electricity prices.

Many BOJ policymakers consider cost-push inflation temporary and insurmountable unless it is accompanied with wage increases.

Given the fact that inflation is rising due to higher raw materials prices rather than an hoped for uptick in domestic consumption, the BOJ’s immediate priority is to keep a short-term blip of inflation from fueling speculation about an imminent policy tightening.

When assessing the future policy, the BOJ will be focusing on whether wages can rise sufficiently to provide households with purchasing power. It may also allow firms to maintain their price hikes and to accelerate inflation.

Kuroda repeatedly stressed that the BOJ is ready to keep its ultra-loose policy in place until inflation reaches its target of 2%.

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