JAKARTA (Reuters – Indonesia’s trade surplus probably fell to December’s lowest point in five years due to slow growth in imports. A Reuters survey found that the largest economy in Southeast Asia is still on pace to surpass all previous year’s export records.

The country is resource rich and has enjoyed an export boom due to the rise in commodity prices. Tuesday’s trade data for December will confirm the nation’s 2021 all-time record in annual exports.

Indonesia’s trade surplus has been posted every month since May 2020. This boost to the rupee helped the currency become one of Asia’s top performers in the last year.

Markets are monitoring closely the effect of the Jan. 1 coal export ban, which was enacted by the government to avoid widespread outages. This could result in Indonesia going backwards, according to economists.

Twelve economists polled predicted a December surplus of $3.13 trillion, down from $3.51 billion in previous months.

On a year-to-year basis exports increased by 40.4%. This was down from November’s 49.7% growth rate. Imports are expected to increase 39.4% compared to November’s 52.62%.

Nomura analysts stated that Indonesia could be forced into a trade deficit if it implemented a one-month export ban for coal in January. Bahana Sekuritas, local brokerage, put January’s exports of coal at $3 billion.

This week Indonesia’s authorities relaxed the ban on 37 ships, but hundreds of miner workers whose output could cover as much as 40% of Indonesia’s total exports were still barred.

(Polling done by Devayani Sathyan in Bengaluru and Tushar Genka in Bengaluru. Writing by Gayatri Subroyo in Jakarta. Editing by Ed Davies.