Robin Emmott, Sabine Siebold

BRUSSELS (Reuters), – NATO is likely to increase its presence in the Black Sea, the Baltics, and defend itself against cyberattacks if Russia attempts to invade Ukraine. This was according to diplomats and other former officials.

The Western military alliance has no legal obligation to support Ukraine and is therefore unable to make tough decisions.

The list includes how to punish Moscow with economic sanctions and the consequences of any Russian shortage to Europe. It also covers taking in refugees fleeing war.

Sergei Ryabkov (Russian Deputy Foreign Minister) stated last week that diplomatic efforts to reach an agreement on legally binding security requests had ended. Experts and diplomats are split on whether Russia will invade Ukraine.

The Kremlin has massed 100,000 troops near Ukraine’s borders, a buildup https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-belarus-plan-joint-military-drills-february-lukashenko-2022-01-17 that the West says is preparation for a war to stop Ukraine ever joining NATO. Russia has denied plans to invade.

NATO has been intensifying its strategy since Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine in 2014. This includes more defensive military planning and modernising deterrents. It also supports Ukraine with cyberwarfare troops.

There is the possibility of conflict spilling onto NATO territory near the Black Sea. The alliance must decide how much to prepare for this and how best to support Kyiv.

NATO agreed in Bucharest, 2008 to make Ukraine a NATO Member. However, NATO is not bound by the original treaty it signed in order to protect Ukraine.

Joe Biden, the U.S. president has decided not to send troops to Ukraine in order to defeat Russian soldiers.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated on November 30 that “It’s important to differentiate between NATO allies… partner Ukraine… Ukraine, which is highly valued as a partner.

NATO diplomats have indicated that Western support for Ukraine can range from increased U.S. weaponry, drones and training to the Ukrainian armed force to increased Russian missile attack resistance. Britain is now supplying Ukraine anti-tank weaponry.

Stoltenberg said the Western military alliance would sign an agreement on closer cybersecurity cooperation with Kyiv in the coming days, without giving more details, after cyberattacks https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/exclusive-ukraine-suspects-group-linked-belarus-intelligence-over-cyberattack-2022-01-15 on Ukrainian government websites last week.

NATO’S BALTIC FOCUS

Hans-Lothar Domroese was a former German general and commander of one the most powerful NATO commands up to 2016, saying that NATO would increase its alert levels if Russia invades Ukraine.

NATO has not ruled it out, but NATO might consider sending more military units to the Baltic States and Poland as a way of strengthening the Eastern Front. He said that NATO may also consider establishing troops in southern-eastern Europe.

This would be used to defend NATO territories, but it would also send Russia a signal of determination.

NATO’s priority has been to strengthen the Baltics since 2014 and it has sent four multinational battlegroups of battalion size led by Canada and Britain, Germany and the United States into Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia.

Last week, Estonia’s Prime Minister told Reuters that NATO was discussing increasing their military presence on its soil. Stoltenberg stated that any Russian attack against Ukraine would prompt a decision.

Denmark has agreed to provide four F-16 warplanes and a frigate in Lithuania to assist with patrolling the Baltic Sea.

NATO’s response force of 40,000 troops uses the troops as “trip wires” and can come in quick to bring additional U.S. troops from around the Atlantic.

SPILLOVER POSSIBLE IN BLACK SEA REGION

Former U.S. general Ben Hodges warned NATO allies to be prepared for more severe consequences if Russia invades Ukraine. The militarised Crimea peninsula is Russia’s “unsinkable” aircraft carrier, he warned.

Hodges stated to Reuters that he expected there would be a spillover if there was a major offensive.

“If there’s a new offensive then we have 3 NATO allies (Romania, Bulgaria, Turkey) in the Black Sea Region… We should take every step for our collective defense.”

Two NATO diplomats stated that allied defense ministers would likely meet next month in order to talk about sending additional forces to NATO’s multi-division headquarters in Romania. It is still a ground command that has been operational since 2017. However, it does not have any immediate maritime or special forces.

Hodges indicated that an operational centre with more resources would be more robust and include increased naval and air exercise, intelligence sharing, surveillance and monitoring of Russian subs, as well as commercial port visits in Crimea. This will allow for better conflict preparation.

Romania has been pushing for an increase in NATO’s naval presence at the Black Sea. But its neighbor Bulgaria is afraid of Russia. Turkey’s involvement, which is a NATO member but not the EU, will be critical.