Robin Emmott, Sabine Siebold

BRUSSELS, (Reuters) – Russia’s troop buildingup in Ukraine is energized NATO defenses in Europe. President Vladimir Putin plans to demantle them. This will give the alliance a renewed sense of hope after its failures in Afghanistan.

Despite intense diplomacy https://www.reuters.com/world/blinken-arrives-berlin-ukraine-talks-with-european-allies-2022-01-20 with Russia, the United States and its NATO allies say they cannot consider demands that Moscow is making for security guarantees while it masses troops near its neighbour’s border and holds live-fire exercises in Belarus. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/belarus-says-joint-drills-with-russia-run-feb-10-20-2022-01-18

Western diplomats, officials and ex-officials claim that NATO, established to repel the Soviet threat in 1949, must be strengthened to comply with Putin’s request that it should not expand to the east.

Sweden and Finland, both neutral states, who have increased their cooperation with the Western alliance have revived the debate on joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation.

French President Emmanuel Macron offered to send troops into Romania. This offer was welcomed by the president of Romania. There is also the possibility that more NATO troops could be sent to the Black Sea and Baltic regions.

Although NATO is under no treaty obligation https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/best-supporting-actor-nato-secondary-role-if-russia-invades-ukraine-2022-01-18 to defend Ukraine, as the former Soviet republic is not a NATO member, the tensions with Russia have united member states around what one former alliance official called “a common sense of purpose”.

This is an international turnaround for the alliance, widely criticised after its chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan by Westerners in August. One German politician called it NATO’s “biggest failure” since its founding.

“One thing that struck me about this was that… Russia has precipitated precisely what President Putin wants to prevent”, U.S. Secretary Antony Blinken said to reporters before departing for Ukraine. He stated that support for NATO membership had increased.

Blinken stated that NATO’s defense posture is certain and that we will need to be more aggressive.

This could mean more NATO ships, planes, and troops in the Black Sea and Baltics, and a shift from a strategy that rotates troops to one of a permanent force presence, with more U.S. troops and weapons.

Arvydas Anousauskas, Lithuanian Defense Minister, stated that the U.S. is moving more capabilities to Europe “because the situation requires it.”

Diplomats and officials suggested that troop decisions may be made as soon as the NATO Summit in Madrid in June. However, any Moscow pullback would likely cause pause.

Russia refutes the U.S. claims that it’s preparing an invasion of Ukraine. Moscow claims NATO is threatening Europe’s stability by offering NATO membership to Ukraine or Georgia. Russia regards Georgia as its backyard.

NATO should retrench beyond the borders it had before joining central and east European nations in 1997.

Once ‘OUT OF THE BUSINESS’ is ‘BRAIN DEAD ‘

Following the fall of the Soviet Union, 1991, NATO was no longer able to play a meaningful role. Richard Lugar, a U.S. Senator, stated that NATO must look beyond its collective defence function and “out of zone or out of business”.

Washington, Berlin and Paris had bitter disagreements over the U.S.-led invasion in Iraq 2003. Donald Trump threatened to withdraw from the alliance in July 2018 as US president. NATO member Turkey pursued its own often conflicting foreign policy in Syria, and Libya. Macron once described NATO as “brain dead”.

An ex-official of NATO sees a strong link between Russian aggression in an organization that is often fractured and has thirty member states, each with their own priorities and views.

NATO’s largest modernisation effort since the Cold War began with Russia’s 2014 annexation from Ukraine of Crimea. NATO believes it is duty-bound by the Baltics and Black Seas. Russia also has bases in Kaliningrad. The Black Sea region has large missile ranges.

According to data from allied agencies, NATO has shown that Canada and Turkey, both European allies have increased their defense spending by $260 Billion since 2014.

Ten NATO members have achieved the goal to spend 2% of GDP on defense. This is an increase from three allies in 2014. NATO’s new NATO spearhead force has been established with 5,000 soldiers.

Jamie Shea, an ex-NATO official and now a senior diplomat at the Friends of Europe thinktank in Brussels said that “There is no doubt it: Russia is uniting NATO around the common purpose.” NATO is forced to make a decision given current circumstances.