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Dollar Drifts as ECB’s Lagarde Sticks to Transitory Inflation Line -Breaking

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Geoffrey Smith 

Investing.com — On Thursday the dollar was largely unchanged in foreign currency markets ahead of an active day for economic news and central bank policy. 

At 95.47 at 03:00 ET (0800 GMT), the index, which compares the greenback to a basket currency from advanced economies, had effectively remained flat as of 3 AM ET (0800 GMT). So far this year’s pattern has been similar, even though U.S. bond yields have risen sharply which would be expected to support it more. To date, however, the dollar index has fallen 0.1%.

This sideways drift is more remarkable given the stark contrast in monetary policies in the U.S. with other major parts of the global economy. China’s central bank extended its support for the troubled realty sector by reducing its Prime Loan Rate from 3.8% to 3.7% and continuing to ease monetary policy. During the day, the central banks of Ukraine, Turkey, and Norway all met.

This move came just days after Bank of Japan reiterated that there is no likelihood of an immediate rise in interest rates. They see inflation as unlikely to increase for at least two more years. 

Christine Lagarde, President of European Central Bank, also spoke on the topic. She stated that conditions which are forcing the Federal Reserve raise interest rates in the Eurozone are not there. In the Eurozone where wages are increasing much slower, more than half the current inflation is being reported as a result of energy prices and this will likely reverse. Thursday’s meeting of the ECB is scheduled to be released. 

Market took this message seriously: it was 0.2% higher at $1.1369 after Destatis, the German statistical office, reported that December saw a 5.0% increase and that they were up 24.2% for the year. This is well ahead of inflation. The fact that prices have more than doubled was the main reason for that rise. Eurozone data for December is due at 5 AM ET.

Germany is the main focus of another important issue that keeps markets busy right now. After U.S. President Joe Biden proposed that he invade a nearby state soon, the currency fell 0.5%, to 76.49 dollars.

The market will also be interested in U.S. data on Thursday, as it last week saw the first tangible impacts of the Omicron-variant Covid-19 wave across the nation. It will release the monthly business survey and existing data on home sales for December. 

 

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