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Inflation outlook highly uncertain, ECB’s Holzmann tells paper -Breaking

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© Reuters. FILEPHOTO: Robert Holzmann (European Central Bank Policymaker, Austrian National Bank Governor) attends the Vienna News Conference on 2 December 2019. REUTERS/Leonhard Foeger

VIENNA (Reuters – It is uncertain how long the European Central Bank targets of around 2% inflation, Robert Holzmann, a member of the ECB Governing Council said in an interview to newspaper Die Presse on Sunday.

Since its record-breaking highs in 2008, the ECB believes that inflation will fall this year. This was a view its President Christine Lagarde reiterated on Friday.

Inflation in the Euro zone reached 5% during December. That’s more than twice what the ECB wanted, however, the bank believes it will drop to below 2% within the fourth quarter.

That it will be possible is something that we have not yet confirmed. We don’t know if inflation will remain at an even higher level,” Holzmann said to Die Presse.

Is inflation now a peak or a plateau? He said that there is much uncertainty because the model we use cannot reproduce it very well.

He said second-round effects such as wage increases will be crucial. However, Lagarde also stated that there is no indication of a price spiral at the moment. Much would hinge on wage negotiations in this year.

Fundamentally, there’s a danger of a price-to-wage spiral. Holzmann stated that he believes the labour-employer representatives were acting rationally and with a lot of thought.

The ECB cannot hold more than 33% of a country’s euro-zone bond volume as part of asset purchases. However, it can keep some countries “very close” but not Austria.

These bonds are also available for purchase by other methods, like the NextGeneration recovery fund of the European Union. This does not contribute to the 33% figure.

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