By Yuka Obayashi

TOKYO (Reuters). Oil prices rose Monday amid concerns over supply disruptions due to rising tensions between Eastern Europe and Middle East. These could tighten an already tight market, as OPEC and its ally continued their struggle to increase output.

Futures gained 0.9% to $88.70 per barrel at 0344 GMT. This reversed a 0.6% drop on Friday.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures rose 72 cents or 0.9% to $85.86 per barrel on Friday after falling 0.5%.

These benchmarks increased for a fifth straight week last week. The gains of around 2% have made them the highest levels since October 2014. On concerns of tightening supplies, prices have risen more than 10% so far this year.

Kazuhiko Sako, chief analyst at Fujitomi Securities Co Ltd., stated that investors remained positive due to the geopolitical risk in Ukraine and Russia as well. OPEC+ also continued to fall short of its output targets.

“An expectancy for higher demand in America amid cold weather also contributed to the pressure,” he stated.

Fears of disruption of supplies in Eastern Europe were fueled by the United States ordering the evacuation of relatives of employees at the embassy in Ukraine on Sunday. The United States cited the ongoing threat of Russian military action as a reason for the order.

The New York Times reported Sunday night that U.S. President Joe Biden had been considering sending several thousand U.S. soldiers to NATO allies in Eastern Europe or the Baltics.

A senior British minister stated that Russia would face economic sanctions if it installed a puppet government in Ukraine. This was after Britain had accused Russia of trying to install a pro-Russian leader there.

The United Arab Emirates defense ministry reported that it had destroyed two Houthi missiles, which were aimed at the Gulf country, on Monday. There have been no casualties.

The OPEC+ groupings the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries with Russia and other producers is having trouble meeting its monthly production increase goal of 400,000 barrels per daily (bpd).

Two sources within OPEC+ told Reuters that December’s compliance with the long-term oil production cuts was at 122%. This indicates that members are still struggling to increase their production.

According to Tetsu Emori (CEO Emori Fund Management Inc.), “It is likely that OPEC+ member countries such as Russia and Saudi Arabia will continue the current policy for gradual increases in output to maintain Brent oil price between $85-$90 a barrel.”

According to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Friday’s statement said that money managers increased their net options and long futures positions during the week ending Jan. 18.

The United States has seen a steady decline in petroleum inventories over the past month. Energy firms have also reduced oil rigs for the first week in thirteen weeks. According to analysts, cold weather will increase heating demand in the coming weeks.[RIG/U]