LONDON/DUBAI/MOSCOW – OPEC+ will likely stick to its March oil output goal for March, multiple sources within the producer group stated. The reason is that it expects recovery in demand despite potential downside risks such as the pandemic, and looming rises of interest rates.

Two OPEC+ source said that the oil price was at an all-time high of $90 per barrel for the past seven years, prompting the group’s consideration to further steps. But the majority of sources confirmed no change at their February 2, online meeting.

According to a Russian source, the Russians were concerned that the rally in oil prices might lead to a revival of U.S. shale output.

According to the source, “OPEC+ should be alert about this price level due to bullish projections for shale production in 2022.”

Sources also stated that the high price of oil was also affecting profit margins in Russian refineries.

OPEC+ (which includes Russia, Russia and allies) has increased its production target every month since August by 400,000 barrels/day (bpd), as it rewinds records-setting production cuts that were made in 2020.

Current plans call for OPEC+ to do it again in March.

One source from OPEC+ stated that “we are likely to go for another 400,000 barrels a day.” It is possible.

Since last year’s United States pressure, OPEC+ has resisted the United States’ demands to quickly increase supply.

Despite OPEC+ having increased its targets, production has not kept up. Some members have difficulty meeting their capacity limits, which has contributed to the soaring prices.

According to the International Energy Agency, OPEC+’s December production target was missed by 790,000. bpd because members like Nigeria or Angola had difficulty increasing output. [IEA/M]

Many banks and analysts, Morgan Stanley JP Morgan and (NYSE:) expect oil prices will rise to $100 per barrel in 2015, owing to tight OPEC+ reserves and high demand.

However, some OPEC+ source believe that recent price rallies are driven more by geopolitical tensions and fundamentals.

It is possible to expect such tensions with Russian-Ukrainian tensions. [it is]One source stated that there was no supply issue regarding $100 oil.