Josh Smith

SEOUL (Reuters) -North Korea’s flurry of new missile tests, including what it calls “hypersonic” https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/nkorea-tests-hypersonic-missiles-global-race-new-rockets-2022-01-11 weapons, has underscored the importance of the country’s missile engineers and scientists, a group that is high profile within his government but opaque to outsiders.

Analysts believe Kim Jong Un is making moves to establish the missile force, signaling his potential intent to turn them into a permanent, operational component of his military plans. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/nkorea-warns-it-may-rethink-moratorium-nuclear-missile-tests-2022-01-19 Here’s what we know – and what we don’t – about these key personnel.

THE SCIENTISTS

It is not known much about the identities and jobs of working-level scientists, technicians and mid-level researchers involved in missile development and research. 

Analysts believe these people have job security as a result of their education and training. The sequestration to specific districts ensures that they don’t pose any threat to the regime and are not a social or political nuisance. 

“Unlike economic cadres or even military commanders, this is a population that is not easily replaced,” said Michael Madden, a North Korea leadership expert at the Washington-based Stimson Center.

Many of them attend Kim Jong Un National Defense University, a training ground for North Korean defense-related science and technology specialists that has reportedly added a college focused on “hypersonic missile technology.”

According to Ken Gause (director of CNA’s International Affairs Group, an independent research and analysis organization, Arlington, Virginia), scientists and engineers can often be seen split into opposing teams creating similar weapon designs.

According to the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Study (CNS), a study in 2018 found North Korean scientists worked alongside researchers from other countries. At least 100 of these articles had been published and had an identifiable relevance for dual-use technology, weapons or mass destruction, as well as other military purposes.

THE OFFICIALS

Kim Jong Un relies on three top people https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-trio-exclusive-idUSKBN18L302 to lead the secretive country’s rapidly accelerating missile programme.

These include Ri Pyong Chol (a former chief air force general); Kim Jong Sik (a veteran rocket scientist); and Jang Chang Ha who is the head of an weapons development-procurement centre.

Pak Jong Chon (the chief of the General Staff) has been promoted to a more prominent role within the Military Industry Department, which is responsible for producing strategic weapons. Gause also stated that this fourth official was Pak Jong Chon.

Gause stated that “we have witnessed a lot changes in the military sector arena over the past few years.”

In the absence of Kim Jong Un (missing from the missile launches 2021 and January launches), Pak was responsible for many of the recent testing.

Yu Jim was also appointed to the MID’s leadership position last year. Yu was previously a representative of North Korea’s primary state arms dealer in Iran, Madden said.

THE ORGANISATIONS

The Academy of National Defense Science (NADS), also known as the Second Academy of Natural Sciences (SANS), oversees North Korea’s missile development.

Madden claimed that the test results can be used to predict the weapon’s state of development.

A NADS/SANS event in which the sole personnel present is from NADS/SANS indicates that the system remains in its research and development stage. When an event includes both NADS/SANS, it often indicates that the system has moved from research and development to manufacturing.  

Finally, if the military’s General Staff Department (GSD) personnel attend a test, such as the recent train mobile missile, this usually indicates that the system is finished and will be deployed.  

Madden stated that initial indications suggest North Korea might fold some elements of its Strategic Forces back to GSD once it finishes its missile- and nuclear weapons arsenal.

FOREIGN ASSISTANCE

North Korea’s missile programme has roots in assistance it received from the Soviet Union, and later Russia, analysts say, and the boosters involved in propelling the latest hypersonic warheads are similar to Soviet designs.

The extent of that aid has continued to be provided since 1990 remains a subject of dispute.

According to the latest sanctions https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/us-imposes-sanctions-north-koreans-russian-after-missile-tests-2022-01-12 designations by the United States, North Koreans linked to the NADS in China and Russia continue to procure materials and technical information for North Korea’s WMD and missile programmes, aided by at least one Russian telecommunications company and a Russian national.

Markus Schiller, a Europe-based missile expert, has argued that North Korea’s success in testing suggests it has had external support.

Schiller points out, however that North Korean missiles under Kim Jong Un failed more frequently than they did in the past. This suggests that younger Kim tested more domestic designs than his predecessors.