NEW YORK, (Reuters) – The U.S. Treasury yields curve will be flat at mid-year as the U.S. Federal Reserve raises interest rates. However, growth could be in question and possibly reverse by year’s end, according to strategists. Standard Chartered Bank (LON) sent a research note.

The Fed’s hawkish attitude has driven up short-term rates and flattened the closely followed yield curve for U.S. Treasuries.

Many economists and money managers see this narrowing of the yield gap between shorter-term Treasuries’ yields and older Treasuries as a sign that there is uncertainty over monetary policy and economic growth.

Spread between yields on U.S. Treasury bonds of 10-year and 2-year duration [US2US10=TWEB]After Raphael Bostic’s hawkish remarks, Monday saw tightening to the early November lows.

Standard Chartered’s Steve Englander (OTC:), and John Davies from Standard Chartered, foresee four Fed rate increases in a row in Friday’s research note. They are in June, July, May, June, and July. They stated that this will result in a pause before the U.S. midterm elections, which “will not appear partisan.”

Englander, Davies and Co. stated they would increase their yield forecast for 2022’s end to 1.5% from 1.2%. However, the market will “increasingly doubt the resilience of growth in Q2 and beyond” leading to an entirely flat 2Y/10Y curve mid-year.

Federal Reserve officials monitor the U.S. Treasury yield curve’s flattening, but they don’t consider it an “iron law” which predicts economic outcomes. Chair Jerome Powell stated last week.

Englander and Davies suggested that flattening pressure could slow down after July, as they anticipate the Fed’s hike to pause.

“However, given Powell’s view that yield curve signals concerning slowdown/recession risks are not “iron clad”, we doubt that Fed messaging or actions can prevent the 2Y/10Y curve dipping into inverted territory by year-end,” they said.