Euro zone inflation unexpectedly hits new record high -Breaking
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© Reuters. FILE PHOTO – Full shelves of fruits in a supermarket in Berlin during spread of coronavirus (COVID-19), March 17, 2020. REUTERS/Fabrizio BenschFRANKFURT/Reuters – The Euro zone inflation increased to a record level last month. It defies expectations and adds to the already resounding doubts about whether price pressures can be sustained and are temporary.
According to Eurostat, the European Union’s statistical agency, inflation rose to 5.1% from December at 5%. This is well above expectations of a fall to 4.4%.
Inflation continued to rise due to rising energy prices, but also food inflation. Services and industrial goods inflation was uncomfortably high.
Although price growth has exceeded 2% at 5.1%, the central banks, who hold a policy session on Thursday, have for months ignored it, arguing that inflation is temporary and will decline on their own.
However, the ECB has a mixed record of forecasting inflation and was forced to increase its projections several times last year.
Although the U.S. Federal Reserve abandoned the notion that inflation was “transitory”, the ECB maintained this assessment. It argued that wage growth, a condition of durable inflation and a precondition for price growth, is still weak.
While core inflation slowed, they still exceeded the ECB’s target. They also beat market expectations wide.
The ECB closely monitors inflation, which excludes food and fuel prices. However, the narrower measure, which also includes alcohol and tobacco, slowed down to 2.5%, from 2.7%. Both numbers were far above what was expected.
However, the ECB predicts that inflation will drop back to 2% before the year ends, in part due to low wage growth. But, a large number of policymakers, including influential ones, have questioned this assertion, warning that there are higher chances.
While wage growth remains weak, unemployment dropped to 7% December. That is an all time low in the euro zone. And it is well below the ECB’s forecasts. These numbers suggest that wage pressures may also be higher than projections.
The policymakers of the ECB are expected to meet on Thursday, following December’s extension of stimulus via a complicated package.
Christine Lagarde, chief of the ECB, may admit that prices pressures are continuing to exceed projections. However, she will likely push back against mounting rate rise expectations and reiterate her long-standing stance, that rate increases this year would be unlikely.
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