By Kantaro Komiya

TOKYO, Reuters – Japan will need four times as many foreign workers in order to follow the economic growth plan the government has outlined. This was according to a coalition of Tokyo-based public thought tanks.

These findings show that Japan is increasingly dependent on migrants to fill its shrinking workforce. However, the country’s ability to recruit overseas talent has been put into question by COVID-19 strict border controls which have closed off students and workers.

Japan needs to increase the number of foreign workers by 6.74 millions in 2040 to maintain an average annual growth rate of 1.24%. This is based on the bullish scenario of “high-growth”, which the government projected in its long-term projection. The report was prepared by think tanks including the Japan International Cooperation Agency, which has a research arm.

This figure is nearly 3000% higher than current 1.72million foreign workers who account for 2.5% of our workforce.

Japan was projected to lose 10% or more of its national workforce within the next 20 years, according to the study.

The country’s peak population was in 2008, but it has been declining since. Its low birth rate of 125 million made last year a reason for its decline to about 125million. Through aging, the population of working age is decreasing even more.

Also, the study considered capital stock which would grow at an average of 1% per annum due to automation technology investments.

In the third largest economy in the world, where people value ethnic unity, immigration and foreign workers have been a sensitive topic for many years.

However, pressure to open borders has increased and there is a lack of jobs for blue collar workers. The government has created new visa categories.

Around half of Japan’s foreign workers are from Vietnam or China. These think tanks predicted that the numbers of people from Myanmar and Cambodia will increase in the coming decades.

According to the group, however, the availability of labour for migrants would continue to fall under current immigration systems. Japan needs more long-term visas.

Japan is being considered a less attractive country for international talent due to its strict closing of borders to non Japanese people by the coronavirus.