Ukraine wary as U.S. says Russia may use fake video as invasion pretext
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The Ukrainian community organized a sit in Rome next to the Russian embassy, which was done by Italian Radicals and Ukrainian community to defend Europe against the Russian invasion threat on February 3, 2022.
LightRocket via Getty Images| Pacific Press | LightRocket via Getty Images
Dmytro Kuleba (Ukraine’s foreign minister) stated that all risks are being considered, after having been briefed in detail by the United States about Russia possibly using fake videos as an excuse for invasion.
Although we haven’t yet seen the video of the announcement, I do know the United States gave us briefings shortly before it was made official. [State Department spokesperson]Ned Price they possess this piece intelligence,” Kuleba said to CNBC’s Hadley Gamble Friday.
“So now, we look forward [to] details. Kuleba replied that Russia can do nothing to provoke war. Everything is possible, and every possibility should be taken into consideration.
It comes just after Russia was accused by the U.S. plotting to fabricate an attackto be used by Ukrainian forces as an excuse for invading its neighbour. On Thursday, the White House stated that Russian intelligence suggests Russia may use a video of an attack by Ukrainian actors.
Kremlin denies it’s preparing false flag operations.
This accusation is made amid an extended period of escalated tensions with Russia and Ukraine. NATO and the U.S. are concerned about the escalating geopolitical crisis.
At various locations along the Ukraine-Russia border, over 100,000 Russian troops have been stationed. Russian forces are also stationed in Belarus (an ally located to the north)
Russia insists it does not intend to invade Ukraine, and the Belarusian forces are ready for next week’s military drills. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said Thursday that there has been “significant movement” of Russian military hardware and troops to Belarus recently.
According to Reuters, he estimated these as 30,000 combat troops and special ops forces.
Russia has been annexed in 2014 and Russia’s support of pro-Russian protests in Ukraine. Russia also wants to be a member of NATO and the EU.
Analysts believe the Kremlin seeks to weaken Ukraine’s government, and that it wants to bring the country into its own orbit of influence.
‘Diplomacy works’
CNBC’s Kuleba, Ukraine’s prime minister, had earlier told CNBC that Russia was threatening to invade Ukraine “in the blink-of an eye” in December.
If he was ever asked about his belief, he answered, “This feeling accompanied me throughout January. But, what I am seeing is that diplomacy does work.”
The threat of an invasion is delayed for December (early January), mid January and late January. Kuleba stated that it meant Ukraine and West had defeated Russia in the first round.
“We’ve won by pushing Russia to maintain this military plan, without actually activating the program.”
Russia submitted a number of security recommendations to NATO and America, asking for guarantees that Ukraine will not be allowed to join the Western military alliance or that NATO reduces its involvement in Eastern Europe. Western officials have rejected these demands.
On Wednesday, the U.S. announced it would move 3,000 of its Europe-based forces closer to Ukraine2 000 troops from the U.S. to go to Poland and Germany to join others, while another 1000 who already reside in Europe to move to Romania.
Russia attacked the decision as destructive, according to reports that quote Alexander Grushko (Deputy Foreign Minister). The Kremlin however stated that Russia should be worried about the U.S. deployment to Europe.
Dmitry Peskov (President Vladimir Putin’s spokesperson) stated that the U.S. was “continuingly to pump up tensions Europe”, adding that deployments are “the most proof that Russia has an obvious reason for being worried”, Russian state news agency TASS reported.
Timothy Ash is a senior emerging market strategist with BlueBay Asset Management. He believes that the Kremlin does not care much about NATO. This alliance has grown in number and territory, but has seen defense spending declines of many members (much to American dismay).
Ash, on the other hand, said, Russia’s motivation stems from a desire to prevent popular uprisings against the government, like those seen in Ukraine in the last two decades — beginning with the so-called “Orange Revolution” in 2004 that saw mass protests in the country after a contested presidential election, and which culminated in pro-Western politicians coming to power that year.
More recently, there was the 2014 Euromaidan Revolution, a more violent uprising that came with a wave of pro-European protests and civil unrest which culminated in the ousting of the then pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych.
Ash stated that “first, it’s Ukraine… Putin ultimately wants Ukraine as he views it as the core of Russia’s identity and great power status.” He believes that Ukraine and Russia share a historical/Slavic brotherhood. Since the fall of the USSR and the Orange Revolution, Ash said Ukraine is now on a Westward course, and could break the link with Russia. “He feels that he must act immediately to prevent this migration.”
Ash said, “Second it’s all about ideas, and not weapons or arms.”
Putin doesn’t like coloured revolutions, as they are the most dangerous to Russia. And in this respect Ukraine is unfinished business — he lost the Orange and Euromaydan revolutions [and]He wants to take revenge, but also prove that they are wrong and can’t provide better governance or improved living standards. Ash believes that his model works better and wants Euromaydan Ukraine’s demise. Ash stated that he can’t help but to interfere in Ukraine’s progress.
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