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Russian forces at 70% of level needed for full Ukraine invasion

by Mike Robinson

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© Reuters. The joint exercise of the armed forces from Russia and Belarus is seen at a firing line in Brest Region of Belarus, February 3, 2022. Vadim Yakubyonok/BelTA/Handout via REUTERS

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Humeyra Pamuk, Phil Stewart

WASHINGTON, (Reuters) – Russia believes that it has about 70% of its combat power needed to invade Ukraine. Two U.S. officials stated on Saturday that Russia is now sending additional tactical battalions along the border with Ukraine.

According to officials speaking to Reuters under condition of anonymity because of the sensitive nature of the information, over the past week, there has been an increase in number of border battalion tactical units (BTGs) to 83. This is compared to 60 on Friday.

Officials said that the ground will reach its peak freeze in February, which would allow for an off-road, mechanized transport by Russian military units. This would be the case until March.

This timeline, along with the increasing number of Russian troops close to Ukraine, could indicate that diplomacy may be closing.

Officials from the United States did not offer any evidence supporting their claims about Russia’s military forces.

Russia has gathered more than 100,000 soldiers near its border and said that it does not plan to invade, but it could use unspecified military force if it fails to meet security requirements. These include the promise that NATO would never admit Ukraine. This is a request Washington and NATO deny.

Washington is open to Russia choosing other options, including limited invasions, than full-scale invasion. However, officials did not say whether President Vladimir Putin has made any final decisions.

However, they claimed that Putin was putting together a force that could execute any scenario.

Officials from the United States said that if Russia invades Kyiv’s capital, it might fall in a matter of days.

One official stated that a full-scale invasion could cause serious casualties.

The official stated that Ukraine may suffer between 5,000 and 25,000 troop casualties. Russia’s casualties could fall to between 3,000-10,000 troop casualties and civilian casualties.

Washington also believes that an invasion of Europe would result in the displacement of many millions of people inside Europe.

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