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Russian forces at 70% of level needed for full Ukraine invasion, U.S. officials say

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T-72B3 tank units of the Russian Western Military District engage in field firing at Kadamovsky Range (Russia), February 3, 2022.

Erik Romanenko | TASS | Getty Images

Russia believes that it has about 70% of its combat power and sent more tactical battalion groups to Ukraine’s border, according to two U.S. officials.

According to officials speaking to Reuters under condition of anonymity because of the sensitive nature of the information, in the past two weeks the number of border battalion tactical units has risen from 60 to 83 in Friday to Friday.

According to officials, an invasion will be planned when the ground reaches its maximum freeze on February 15, which should allow for mechanized off-road transit by Russian military units. These conditions will continue through March.

This timeline, along with the increasing number of Russian troops close to Ukraine, could indicate that diplomacy may be closing.

American officials didn’t provide any proof to support their estimations of Russia’s forces.

Russia has gathered more than 100,000 soldiers near its border and said that it does not plan to invade, but it could use unspecified military force if it fails to meet security requirements. They include the assurance that NATO will not admit Ukraine. That is an unacceptable demand by Washington and NATO.

Washington thinks Russia might choose another option than an invasion full-scale, according to officials.

They said that Putin has put in place a force capable of executing all situations.

Officials from the United States said that if Russia invaded Kyiv’s capital, it would fall in a matter of days.

According to one official, a large-scale invasion would result in major losses.

The official stated that Ukraine may suffer between 5,000 and 25,000 troop casualties. Russia’s casualties could fall to between 3,000-10,000 troop casualties and civilian casualties.

Washington also believes that an invasion of Europe would result in the displacement of many millions of people inside Europe.

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