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Peloton shares up on takeover talks, here’s why a deal might not work

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Cari Gundee, a Peloton trainer, rides at her San Anselmo home, April 6th, 2020.

Ezra Shaw | Getty Images

PelotonThe stock of soared by more than 30 percent in premarket trade Monday. It is on track to return above its IPO prices as the overpriced connected fitness company attracts attention from outsiders.

So far reports have named AmazonAnd Nike as potential suitors. Analyst: AppleIs “aggressively involved,” too. CNBC was told by a source that all negotiations are preliminary and Peloton has not yet started a formal sale process.

Blackwells Capital has less than 5% of the shares, and activist firm Blackwells Capital also holds a small stake has urged Peloton to sell itselfSome analysts have thrown cold water on this proposition.

One, John Foley, the Chief Executive of Peloton, and other Peloton insiders combined had approximately 80% voting power as of September 30, which made it virtually impossible to make any deal without their consent.

Jonathan Komp, Baird analyst said Monday in a research paper that Foley is unlikely to be ready for sale unless Peloton has experienced enough pressure. Foley’s management has shown “unwavering faith” that it can achieve its long-term goals, Komp said.

Peloton shares closed Friday at $24.60, giving the company a market value of just over $8 billion — far below the roughly $50 billion market value it fetched a year earlier. Recent days have seen shares trade below the initial price of $29, and well below their 52-week peak of $155.52.

Others, however, believe that Washington D.C.’s regulator scrutiny of large tech could limit the possibility of Amazon and other businesses negotiating deals with them. Google. Recent litigation was brought by the Federal Trade Commission. block an acquisitionBy chip maker NvidiaFor example, Amazon’s deal to buy MGM StudiosAlthough it was officially announced in May 2013, the regulatory approval has not yet been granted. Google also acquired Fitbit. tied up in reviewsFor more than a year.

Cowen & Co. analyst John Blackledge said a deal is unlikely for Peloton, given that the company is still in the “early innings” of growth in the global fitness industry.

Blackledge draws an analogy between Peloton (and other sports) in a research note. NetflixBack in 2012, when video streaming was just beginning. Carl Icahn, an activist investor at the time, targeted the company. He suggested that there might be strategic value in combining Netflix with a bigger business. This never happened.

Simeon Siegel, analyst at BMO Capital Markets, said that he was skeptical about the potential value of Peloton to major tech companies or athletic apparel giants like Nike “because it is comparably small, faltering in demand and decreasing engagement.”

In a note addressed to clients, Siegel stated that Peloton could be more of a “fixer-upper” for major corporations such as Amazon. Peloton’s existing fitness customers will likely be overlapped with Amazon Prime subscribers, which could mean that there is not much value to the e-commerce company.

Amazon might offer Prime members a Peloton subscription. especially as it prepares to hike the price of the service nearly 17% to $139 annually.

Siegel declared that “a company is only worth the amount someone will pay.” Peloton will be worth more if a large-cap company decides to buy it. But, it is questionable if this would make any sense until then.

Peloton will release its second-quarter fiscal financial results on Tuesday after the market closes.

—CNBC’s Alex ShermanThis report was contributed by you.

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