Jason Lange, Joseph Ax

(Reuters) – The United States’ Republican and Democratic legislators are creating political maps which will increase polarization, encourage extreme candidates and eliminate competitive seats in Congress. This is according to a new Reuters analysis.

New congressional maps have been completed by 31 states as part the one-in-a-decade redistricting process. Out of 6 states with only 1 district, 308 of the 435 U.S. House of Representatives seats now have their boundaries set for November’s midterm election.

The analysis revealed that there were 62 areas in 2020 where the margin for the presidential election victory was under 10 percentage points. According to the analysis, this number drops from one-third of 41 districts to 41.

According to electoral experts, the elimination of competitive areas is detrimental in several ways.

Congress is already divided with many major bills drawing support from one party or the other. If there is no fear of losing the general election, then candidates will be more inclined to go ideologically extreme to get their nomination.

Voters, especially those in minority parties can feel disenfranchised when so many election results are predetermined prior to a vote is cast.

Kathay Feng is the director of national redistricting for Common Cause. She stated, “When politicians draw lines which lock in the winners over the next decade, it creates disillusionment among voters because our voices will not be heard.”

Without the Congress political middle, it is “most likely that you will end up having a dysfunctional organization,” she stated.

With the advent of mapping technology and advanced data, political gerrymandering (the manipulation of district lines in order to keep one party in power) has become more common in both major parties. The Republicans are using the technique more efficiently after making substantial gains in statehouses since 2010.

Close to 50% of U.S. House races were decided by margins exceeding 30 percentage points even before the redistricting.

When you consider only states that one party has unrestricted authority over redistricting and swing districts, it is particularly noticeable.

There were 14 Texas congressional districts where Donald Trump and Joe Biden were separated by less than 10 percentage points in 2020. Three of these districts are not included in the state’s Republican-drawn new map. The remaining 35 seats will determine whether or not November’s elections take place.

New York Democrats approved last week an aggressive map to eliminate three of five state-wide competitive seats. This was done in order for Democrats to have the advantage in 22 out of 26 district.

Redistricting has not produced a clear winner for either party. Republican-controlled Florida, which has 28 seats, has not completed new lines, and lawsuits in several states could force changes to their maps.

The Reuters analysis used PlanScore (a map tool created by the Campaign Legal Center) and voting totals from the Atlas (NYSE 🙂 of U.S Presidential Elections. Because Kentucky did not have full precinct-level voter data, the calculations were excluded.

CENTRISTS UNDER FIRE

According to electoral experts, a shortage of candidates could decrease turnout and reduce investment in outreach efforts by the national parties.

The voting patterns of primary election participants tend to lean more left- or right-leaning than those who vote in general elections. Candidates in heavily partisan areas are therefore incentivized and encouraged to serve their base.

Mark Jones, an assistant professor of political science at Rice University in Houston, said “Probably the most important effect is that you really pull out the rug from under centrists within both parties.” The primary is the only thing candidates need to be concerned about.

Texas’s 3rd congressional district saw Trump win only a narrow victory in 2020. Van Taylor was elected two terms as Republican congressman. He won this seat partly by his bipartisan record.

However, Keith Self, a former county judge has challenged his support for a commission independent to investigate Trump’s Jan. 6 insurrection on the U.S. Capitol.

Redeploying the district by Republican legislators to improve safety, Trump’s victory was reduced to one point. He would now have won it by 14 points. Self, however, may have more options because Taylor has not been loyal enough to Trump.

Texas hosts the first Texas primary in the country’s 2022 midterm election season on March 1, 2019.

Illinois Democratic legislators pushed for an aggressively-gerrymandered map to ensure that 14 of 17 state seats were secured. In Illinois, the plan was to merge two Republican northern districts into one highly conservative area. This led incumbent Adam Kinzinger to retire, who had been criticized by Trump for his vote to impeach him.

The map in southern Illinois also showed Rodney Davis, a moderate incumbent, as a Republican. Mary Miller, Republican Congressman and far-right Trump fan with a history of controversy, announced that she would challenge Davis in the primary.

Trump already supported Miller because Davis, who was a representative of a swing area, voted for certification of the 2020 election results.