John Davison and Ahmed Rasheed

BAGHDAD, (Reuters) – The next leader for Islamic State will likely be from a small group of combat-hardened Iraqi jihadists that emerged after the 2003 U.S. Invasion. Two Iraqi security officers and three independent analysts confirmed this.

According to Iraqi officials, among the potential successors of Abu Ibrahim al-Quraishi who was captured in Syria by U.S. forces last week includes one commander Washington and Baghdad had declared dead last year.

Quraishi’s death, at 45, was yet another devastating blow for IS, two years after violent Sunni Muslim leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi died in an identical raid in 2019.

Quraishi was an Iraqi who never addressed his followers or fighters, and avoided electronic communication. He also oversaw the move to fight in smaller devolved units as a response to U.S. and Iraqi-led pressure.

Many who follow Islamic State closely anticipate it to name a successor over the coming weeks. This is because the group which has imposed brutal rule across vast swathes Iraq and Syria between 2014 and 2017 continues to wage a persistent and deadly insurgency.

Fadhil Ab Rgheef (an expert on Iraqi security) said there could be at least four successors.

His statement said, “These include… Abu Khadija whose last role was Iraq leader, Islamic State; Abu Muslim, Anbar’s leader, and Abu Salih, about whom very little is known but was close to Baghdadi or Quraishi.”

Abu Yassir al-Issawi is also believed to still be alive. Because he is a veteran of the military, he’s a valuable member of the group.”

The death of Issawi in an attack on air in January 2021 was both reported by Iraqi forces at that time as well as U.S.-led coalition military fighting Islamic State, Iraq, and Syria.

An Iraqi security officer confirmed that there was strong evidence Issawi may still be alive. The official stated that if he wasn’t dead, he would be a candidate. He’s been tested and proven to plan military strikes and has many supporters.

SECURITY SWEEP

An official said that the Islamic State had likely conducted a security sweep to find potential leaks, which resulted in Quraishi’s untimely death. Then they would convene to select or announce a successor.

Hassan Hassan (editor of New Lines magazine) said that Quraishi’s new leader will be an experienced jihadist from Iraq.

He stated that “if they pick one they’ll need to select someone within the same circle…the group that was part the Anbari Group which operated under the name ISIS since its early days”

The militants who waged a sectarian-driven, increasingly Sunni Islamist insurgency against U.S troops and Iraqi forces following 2003 led to the formation of Islamic State.

The Islamic State of Iraq (also known as al Qaeda in Iraq) was an offshoot of Osama Bin Laden’s global al Qaeda network. This organisation is the precursor of ISIS.

Baghdadi as well as Quraishi, who were members of al Qaeda Iraq in Iraq, spent some time in U.S. Detention during the 2000s. According to one U.S. security officer and an army colonel, Quraishi’s potential successors had not been captured.

Many analysts and officials from various countries believe that Islamic State has been under increasing pressure. They also doubt their ability to reinstate the caliphate it claims. They are however divided over how important Quraishi’s passing is to the group.

Some believe the US and its allies will lose the fight against ISIS for decades to come, as the insurgency grows into a permanent rebellion with new leaders eager to assume the reigns.

“In Syria, Islamic State units operate as a devolved network made up of various groups to protect them from being targeted. According to one security official from Iraq, we don’t believe Quraishi’s demise will have an immense impact.

It’s becoming more difficult to track them since they have stopped using their mobile phones as a communication tool.

Officials say that Islamic State leaders find it easier to travel between Syria and Iraq since their defeat in Iraq’s territorial war in 2017.

According to military and security officials, the border of Syria with Iraq is 600km (372 miles) long making it difficult for Iraqi forces prevent militants from infiltrating underground tunnels.

NEW LEADERSHIP STYLE

Lahur Talabany was the former head of counterterrorism for Iraq’s Kurdistan Region.

He told Reuters that he was not surprised if there are more attacks in a certain area. The caliphate was destroyed, but ISIS wasn’t eliminated. “I don’t think we were able to complete the task.”

Islamic State’s possession of land in Iraq and Syria set it apart from other like-minded groups such as al Qaeda and became central to its mission when it declared a caliphate in 2014, claiming sovereignty over all Muslim lands and peoples.

Fiercely anti-Western, the group also draws on Sunni-Shi’ite tensions, saying Shi’ites were infidels who deserve to be killed.

Abu Rgheef claimed the new leader might have better military credentials than Quraishi. Quraishi’s followers, according to Iraqi officials, were more inclined towards Quraishi as an Islamic legal thinker than a military man.

According to the leader, the character of attacks and operations could change. He said that the new leader might be more inclined to suicide bombers, bombs and large-scale attacks.

Analysts say that Quraishi’s operation secretiveness and low public profile will likely affect his death.

Hassan claimed Quraishi’s death would decrease morale. “ISIS also has a fixed set of personalities, and it’s hard to trust them,” Hassan said.

Senior fellow Aaron Zelin at Washington Institute said that a figurehead was very important for ISIS.

“When a leader of the group dies, you swear to that leader only, not the entire group.

(Ahmed Rasheed, John Davison and Dominic Evans reported from Baghdad. Additional reporting was done by Dominic Evans in Istanbul. Writing by John Davison. Editing by William Maclean.