By Gavin Jones

ROME (Reuters), February 9, 2009 – The December Italian industrial production fell 1.0% below what was expected, following a 2.1% increase in November’s data.

According to Reuters, 19 analysts warned of a 0.7% decrease in monthly GDP for December.

The November data were revised from the 1.9% originally reported increase.

According to ISTAT, December’s industrial output increased 4.4% year-on-year, a decrease of 6.6% in November.

ISTAT stated that the output rose 0.5% over the past quarter. That is a decrease from 1.1% recorded during the third quarter.

The total 2021 industrial output rose 11.8% compared to the previous year. This was after recovering from the 11.4% decrease in 2020, when the economy was struck by coronavirus lockdowns.

December witnessed a decrease in the production of intermediate, investment and consumer goods month-on–month, according to ISTAT, while energy product output increased marginally.

After a historic contraction of 8.9% in 2020, the preliminary growth rate for Italy’s economy was 6.5% by 2021.

Officially, Mario Draghi’s government forecasts an increase in gross domestic product of 4.7% for this year. However, high energy prices, coronavirus deaths, and recent increases in cases have clouded the outlook.

In January, consumer and business confidence fell and analysts from most think tanks and agencies now consider the government’s forecast for full-year growth optimistic.

ISTAT has provided these details.

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION DEC OVT

Mth/mth pct change (adjusted) -1.0 2.1r -0.6r

Yr/yr pct change (adjusted) 4.4 6.6r 1.9

Yr/yr pct change (unadjusted) 7.7 6.5r -1.2

NOTE: Base 2015 =100

Revisions are indicated by (r).

ISTAT presented the following December breakdown, adjusted monthly-on month percent change.

Consumer goods -1.0

Investment goods -2.2

Intermediate goods, -0.5

Energy goods 0.1

((Gavin Jones, Rome newsroom +39 06 8522 4350, fax +39 06 854 0568 rome.newsroom@news.reuters.com))