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Stock futures are flat following a steep sell-off spurred by hot inflation

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Traders at the NYSE floor, February 9, 2022.

Source: NYSE

After a Wall Street sell-off, which was triggered by the highest inflation readings in 40 years, stock futures were flat overnight Thursday trading.

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures fell just 30 point. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures were little changed.

The rash in risk assets on Thursday was caused by a spike in Treasury yields in response to consumer price data surged more than 7% last month,This is the largest gain in a year since February 1982. For the first time in 2019, the yield on the 10-year Treasury rose above 2%, while that of the rate-sensitive 2-year Treasury yield shot up more than 26 basis points at one moment. This was its greatest intraday swing since 2009.

The hotter-than-expected inflation reading prompted St. Louis Fed President James Bullard to call for accelerating rate hikes — a full percentage point increase by the start of July.

CME data showed a close-100% probability of a rate-hike at March’s meeting. Futures also repriced rates-hike chances. The market forecasts a much more aggressive rate-hike schedule in the remainder of the year. It could see seven increases.

The Fed is facing a Goldilocks problem and Three Bears Problem. This occurs because the Fed must move quickly but not too slowly to avoid a policy that is too difficult,” Rick Rieder of BlackRock, chief investment officer global fixed income said in a note.

“While policymakers have had to change their stance from being too accommodating to the point where they are now, or months back, this is going to prove to be a difficult task,” Rieder explained.

Blue-chip Dow fell more than 500 point on Thursday. It ended a winning streak lasting three days with the worst daily performance since Jan. 18. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.8% and 2.1%, respectively.

The major averages still have modest gains and are poised to record their third consecutive positive week. This week the Dow has gained 0.4%, and the Nasdaq 0.6%. The S&P 500 is only up 0.1% after Thursday’s decline.

Brian Price from Commonwealth Financial Network, Head of Investment Management said “I anticipate that we will see a return to the volatility that was predominant for most of January in the aftermath of this report.” “Investors might want to be cautious as this could lead to volatility in risk assets. Until inflationary data slows down, I anticipate that it will.

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