California’s new congressional map provides more power for Latinos voters. A fast-growing demographic that tends to lean left, California’s new congressional maps gives them greater control. 

The tweaked districts could be good news for national Democrats this year as they struggle to keep control of Congress — but only if they take the Golden State’s Latino electorate seriously, experts said.

John Pitney, Claremont McKenna College politics professor, stated that Democrats, given their national climate, and the uphill battles they face, will be very grateful for any gain in California during midterms.

The party could hold its ground in California or gain additional Democratic seats. This will help it defend its narrow majority in Congress and reverse a historical trend. poor year for President Joe Biden’s party.

California is one of the most populous states in America. 36 statesThe decennial redistricting procedure, in which legislative boundaries are redrawn after every U.S. Census is completed to accommodate demographic changes, has been approved by the states that approve maps. To avoid partisangerrymandering which was common in California, an independent commission redistricts the legislative seats. some states That give their legislatures redistricting powers. The nation’s largest state is now, for the first time ever in its history. lost a congressional seatDue to the slow growth of its population over the last decade.

An important change to the congressional map is made in six other majority-Latino counties, bringing the total number of states to 16. analysis Public Policy Institute of California published the information last month. The state’s majority-Latino congressional seats account for around 30% of its 52 districts. 

Latino voters could vote Democratic and the new districts will help Democrats hold onto the control of California’s congressional delegation. California Democrats hold a 42 to 10 majorityOne vacant seat.  

However, Democrats shouldn’t take victory in majority Latino areas for granted.

While both candidates and political agents across the nation have stressed the importance to win over Latino voters throughout the campaign, there is no single strategy that will work for the diverse cultural, geographic, and economic electorate. Latino voters have different priorities in California and other parts of the United States.

California Democrats will have a greater advantage if they “meaningfully engage” the state’s Latino voters. These voters may not be as blue-eyed as we expect, says Christian Arana (Vice President of Policy at Latino Community Foundation). California-based independent Latino advocacy non-profit.

Arana explained that California’s Latino vote might be Democrats’ last chance to retain control over the House. But, there should be greater engagement in and investment in the majority-Latino areas. 

“Democrats would have to actually go into these communities to motivate them. That goes for any party, if they want to get these votes. He added that “they have to be proactive.”

From 2010 to 2020 the California Latino population increased by 11% or approximately 1.5 million according to Census data. California’s largest ethnic or racial group was Latinos by 2020. 39% of the state’s residents. This represents an increase from 37% recorded in 2010 when whites were the largest racial/ethnic groups in the state, according to Census. 

It was nearly 15.6 million LatinosCalifornia 2020 There are approximately 8 million. eligible votersThe Latino Community Foundation identifies ‘Alias,’ as the largest Latino vote bloc in the United States. 

Los Angeles County, with 4.8 million Latinos in 2020 was the most populous county in California. However, most of California’s Latino population growth in the last decade has been concentrated in the more rural parts of Northern California. Humboldt and Place counties saw large increases of their Latino population. Census data. 

Census data shows that Central Valley counties also experienced high levels of Latino population increases since 2010. These ranged from 15% to 20%. The Central Valley region was home to the majority of new congressional districts with Latino majorities. Three were located in Fresno and Bakersfield, while Merced is three.

Latinos have voted Democratic historically in California, and all across the U.S.

Michael Li, senior counsel to the Brennan Center Democracy Program’s Democracy Program suggested that Latino voters could still be able to vote, particularly in the long-term. 

Li claimed that Republicans are known for their long-standing efforts to reach Latino voters. The party should put in more effort and hire candidates that appeal to Latinos. This could help them win more California votes, Li said. 

Li suggested that Latino voters might be good for Republicans, if they’re willing to work hard to win over voters of color. It could even be beneficial for the party, especially if the party looks to the future following this midterm election cycle. 

According to recent research, Republicans could have gained support from Latino voters. According to trends, the Democratic tendencies are amongst those voters who might not be as stable. 

Equis Labs is a polling group that focuses on Latino voters. Its analysis found that the majority of Latinos voted in the Equis Labs survey. Latino vote shifted nationwideFrom 71% Democratic in 2016, to 63% by 2020. In the meantime, Asian, Black, and white voters were largely unchanged during this time. 

The analysis showed that 54% Latino voters believed it to be convincing that Democrats “want their votes but forget about them when it comes down to delivering.” 

Other analysisPew Research Centre found that Donald Trump’s former presidency narrowed the margins of Democrats with Latino voters at the 2020 election. Biden won 59%, while Trump received 38%. This is significantly more than the 25% support that Republican House candidates got in 2018. 

Although he received the most Latino votes in 2020, Biden’s approval score among Latinos fell to 28% last month. According to a Quinnipiac University survey. 

California exit polls suggest that Democratic support for Latinos might not have dropped as dramatically in California.

About 60% Latino voters supported Democratic Governor. According to the California governor recall election, Gavin Newsom supported Democratic Gov. NBC News. However, this is a fraction lower than the 64% Latino voter who voted for Newsom in 2018. NBC News exit pollIt was the same year that it was. 

Experts believe that the Democratic Party needs to increase its outreach with Latino voters in California, given the small drop in Democratic support. 

Arana explained that Democrats can’t assume the Latino voter bloc is theirs. They could win Congress, but they would need to engage Latino voters. 

Arana specifically emphasized the importance of addressing issues facing young Latinos. They make up about half the state’s eligible Latino voters. He mentioned that these include climate change and health care costs. 

We see children literally working two to three jobs in order to support their families during this epidemic. Their family often doesn’t have access to health care. Arana explained that the poor air quality in Central Valley areas, home to so many Latinos, is a problem. These issues will need to be addressed. 

Equis Research analysisIt was found that in 2020 the economic and coronavirus pandemic were top priorities for Latino voters. Analyse showed that the economic situation was high up on voters’ priority lists in California. 36% deemed it to be the “most pressing issue” facing Latinos in 2020. It is six points higher than 2016 when immigration was top of the list for Latino voters.

According to Arana, social media advertisements and commercials will not be sufficient in mobilizing Latino voters for California. Arana suggested that Republicans as well as Democrats who want to win Latino voters should focus on “on the ground organizing” which starts immediately and doesn’t wait until the midterm election. 

During the 2018 midterm elections Democrats used these tactics to their advantage. swept seven congressional districtsArana stated in an August 2021 Op-Ed that Orange County was once considered to be a stronghold of California Republicans. More than one in six voters in each district is Latino. 

Arana attributed the victories to a multimillion-dollar effortThe Democratic National Committee was able to reach out to voters using digital ads, canvassers on the ground, and mail outreach before the 2018 midterm elections. The 2018 election was not the only one. a much more favorable yearFor the entire party. 

Similar techniques were also used in 2020 on the national level. Biden’s presidential campaign, and the DNC, increased engagement with Latino voters, and other communities throughout the U.S. by a microtargeting approach that involved a flood of Spanish-language ads as well phone banking and virtual events. 

California had a slight higher Latino turnout in 2020 according to a report by a studyFrom the University of Southern California’s Center for Inclusive Democracy. However, the report also showed that the participation gap among Latinos in California was still present during the 2020 general electoral cycle. Comparing to California’s overall population, the 2020 turnout rate for eligible Latino voters increased by four percentage points in 2020.

Clarissa Martinez was the deputy vice president at UnidosUS (a Latino advocacy nonprofit), and she agreed with this need to reach out to Latino voters. However, she stressed the need for such engagement from both political parties.

Martinez stated that Republicans and Democrats need to be better at courting Latino voters. They have seen poor outreach from both parties and low engagement. This electorate cannot be ignored.” 

Paul Mitchell, who is a political analyst and founder of Redistricting Partners said that California’s federal Voting rights Act was a key factor in increasing majority-Latino district growth. State’s independent redistricting commissionThey had to adhere to a VRA provision that guarantees minorities equal chance to elect their representative. 

The commission was required to create districts for “underrepresented races or ethnic groups” where they are large, concentrated, and politically distinct in California. This is according to a Public Policy Institute of California analysis. 

Mitchell stated that the commission could use race to influence how lines were drawn. It played a major role in drawing more California congressional districts that were majority-Latino. 

But he said that majority-Latino districts in California could potentially hurt Democrats — if Latinos do vote for them during the midterms.

Mitchell pointed out that the VRA restrictions often result in minority voters being concentrated into a few districts. This effectively ensures their representation. However, concentrating Latino voters within a single district can dilute their influence on the surrounding districts.

Mitchell suggested that this effect might occur in California. This would make it a problem for Democrats but a benefit to Republicans. But, this argument assumes that Democrats will win Latino votes more often than they do in the future.

George Cheung, director of More Equitable Democracy (a non-profit organization for racial and social justice), used the same argument, calling it one of “unintended outcomes” of majority-minority areas. 

According to Cheung, “packing” voters from minority groups into one district is one method of gerrymandering. It’s the manipulation of district lines in favor of one party or group. Cheung stated that drawing a District where Latinos constitute the dominant majority can potentially result in “wasteful” of thousands of Latino vote, which could have been used to elect another candidate. 

“It could be that the establishment of these Latino majority districts might lead to an overall increase of Republicans elected,” said he. 

Cheung stated, “Winners-take-all election often create something of an Sophie’s Choice scenario. Helping Latino voters elect the candidates they prefer might ironically also help to elect more candidates hostile towards those Latino voters.” 

Eric McGhee is a senior associate at PPIC and said that there was no evidence to support this argument regarding majority-minority areas. 

Some people have claimed that Democrats are worse overall when they give more representation to racial and ethnic minorities. He said that he doesn’t believe that is true. Furthermore, he stated that independent redistricting committee did not take into account partisan data in redrawing congressional district boundaries. 

McGhee’s senior counsel, Li, said that maps drawn by the Brennan Center’s Democracy Program were not allowed to be drawn with political bias. Its job is to maintain minority communities intact and allow cards to fall where they are politically. 

Contrary to California, Texas’ state legislature didn’t draw new majority-Latino areas. According to the Texas State Legislature, 39% of residents are Latinos. Census data. 

The Justice Department suing Texas under the VRAAccording to NBC News, the state claims that new maps will “dilute” increased voting power among minorities that has resulted from recent demographic shifts. Two more seats were allocated to the state, however they both belong to majority-white districts. 

Martinez, UnidosUS deputy vice-president, claimed that Texas redistricting “undeniably disonors, and quiets”, Latino voters. 

She said that while California’s creation of majority-Latino areas is more encouraging than Texas’s, redistricting in California still needs improvement. 

It is possible to make more strides in making sure that Latinos are represented meaningfully and given a voice. She said that this work is continuing and added that it was still to be seen what the impact of majority-Latino areas in the state would have on the overall situation. 

She stated, “This will be something we’ll be paying close attention this fall and the next few midterm cycles,”

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