Stock Groups

As Russia-Ukraine crisis unfolds, China and Taiwan are watching


Russia’s President Vladimir Putin, and China’s president Xi Jinping.

Mikhail Metzel | TASS | Getty Images

The world is still wondering if it’s possible to make a difference. Russian President Vladimir PutinAnalysts believe that Ukraine’s smaller neighbour will be invaded. China is particularly interested in this, given its claims about Taiwan.

China repeatedly has declared its support for the UN. intention to reunify with TaiwanThe People’s Republic of China claims a small island off China’s coast called “The People’s Republic of China”.

CNBC spoke with no analysts suggesting that Russia’s attack on Ukraine could lead to a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. They did however say that Taiwan and China are closely monitoring the developments in Ukraine.

Xi Jinping, the Chinese president, “is trying to find out how much the United States can do relative to Ukraine,” Robert Daly of the Kissinger Institute for China and the U.S. told CNBC last Wednesday.

However, I don’t think the two nations, Taiwan and Ukraine, should be considered as a single entity in this particular case. He said that China is aware that Taiwan is important to the United States and that Taiwan’s central role in American security strategies for the Western Pacific.

CNBC did not reach out to China’s Foreign Affairs Ministry for comments.

For Taiwan, what is important? If there were significant actions in Ukraine, Beijing would be paying attention to the amount and intensity of sanctions [from Western countries].

DJ Peterson

president, Longview Global Advisors

Moscow and Beijing declared this month however a “no limits” partnership ahead of the Winter OlympicsChina. Xi and Putin issued a joint statement on February 4, calling for the West’s support. “abandon its ideologized Cold War approaches”They also declared their opposition against NATO expansion

It is impossible to prevent Ukraine from becoming a member of the Western democratic alliance. a central strategic goal for Putin.

Ian Bremmer is the president of Eurasia Group and founder. He noted before that statement that China was generally supportive of Russia’s position on Ukraine. However, he hadn’t “very active in taking action.”

Bremmer wrote in a research note that it was important to acknowledge the increasing alignment between Russia, China. In a research note, Bremmer said “in the event there is any further escalation of U.S./European Sanctions against Russia,” the Chinese government will likely intervene and offer more economic integration and technology with Moscow. He stated that such a move “dramatically tightens the relationship between America and its two most important adversaries.”

CNBC’s Bremmer stated in an email comment that China might have more freedom in economic and political pressure. However, there is no indication of any plans to invade. [of Taiwan](or any other significant change in the current status quo.”

“The Biden Administration has repeatedly communicated that Taiwan isn’t Afghanistan or Ukraine… [the]”The message was received by the Chinese leadership,” he said.

Taiwanese thinking?

Taiwan condemned openly a portion of the joint statement from Russia and China that stated that “the Russian side reaffirms its support for the One-China principle, confirms that Taiwan is an inalienable part of China, and opposes any forms of independence of Taiwan.”

Taiwan’s Foreign Ministry issued a statementIt “solemnly condemns and strongly condemns” this derogatory and false statement.

The report stated, “It not just increases Taiwanese people’s disgust at, loathing for, and hatred for the Chinese government’s arrogance & bullying, it also shows all the countries of the world the sinister visage of the Chinese Communist régime’s aggression. expansionism. and damaging of peaceful,”

CNBC was not able to get a response from China’s foreign minister seeking clarification about the Taiwanese declaration.

Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council wasn’t immediately available to follow up.

CNBC spoke with DJ Peterson of Longview Global Advisors geopolitical consulting firm. He said that Taiwan can see parallels to Eastern European countries under the influence of an even larger, stronger state.

Taiwan seeks to strengthen relations with the Baltic States. Tsai Img-wen met with lawmakers from Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia in November.

Peterson said that Taiwan is following closely what is happening in Eastern Europe and sees a parallel. He compared Taiwan and Ukraine to large regional hegemons and referred to Taiwan and Ukraine as “weaker neighbours”.

Peterson explained that Taiwan should be concerned about the impact of any significant Ukrainian action. Beijing will also pay attention to the levels and intensity of sanctions. We don’t yet know the exact scenario, but there is no current sanction scenario.

False and Derogatory

Analysts say China will follow the Russia/Ukraine crisis but that it is not encouraged to take military action against Taiwan.

Beijing has economic interests, and shares a goal with Russia to undermine Western soft power, and liberal institutions,” Julia Pamilih (director of China Research Group), a group made up of U.K lawmakers.

“But Taiwan’s not Ukraine. And Beijing’s strategy to shift the cross-Straits status quo in its favour is as much economic and diplomatic as it is military,” she said in emailed comments last week.

China has a policy of “unification” towards Taiwan. Xi saying last OctoberThe historical task of the total reunification must be accomplished, and it will be.

Taiwan also protested repeatedly that month. incursions by Chinese warplanesIn Taiwan’s Air Defense Zones

Andrius Tursa (central and eastern Europe advisor, Teneo Intelligence’s managing director) stated that despite a growing strategic partnership between Russia & China, “a military escalated between Russia & Ukraine would be unlikely opportunistic continental invasion of Taiwan.”

Beijing considers diplomatic and economic implications when considering an invasion. “Events in Ukraine will not change Beijing’s judgement that these impacts are catastrophic,” they wrote in a Tuesday note.

Beijing may take advantage of the US’s declining security in Europe to move assets out of the Asia Pacific region. Beijing can use increasing activity in South China Sea and Taiwan Strait to send a message to Taiwan and others that the U.S. Security Partner is not trustworthy.”

China has a totally different timeline

Bonny Lin, senior fellow for Asian security and director of the China Power Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia”She said Monday that Taiwan was not at imminent risk.

Lin said that many have made parallels between Ukraine, Taiwan and Russia. Lin also acknowledged that both countries are facing stronger neighbours, Russia and China and that they both feel under increasing pressure. China is a different country and has many non-military options that can be used on Taiwan.

Lin explained that China is not required to take action on Taiwan right now, even if the United States has become distracted in Ukraine. Lin said that China has not shown any signs of being ready to make a move on Taiwan in the near future.