Wall Street analysts share hedging tactics as Russia-Ukraine tensions mount
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One of the Ukrainian military personnel takes part at tactical military exercises in Rivne, Ukraine on February 16, 2022.
Ukrainian Presidential Press Service via Reuters
The geopolitical tensions affected assets from all sectors of the spectrum. oiland natural gas. Russian rubleAnd safe havens, such as gold, government bondsThe Japanese yen, and the Swiss Franc.
CNBC heard Philipp Lisibach from Credit Suisse’s chief global strategist earlier this week, that any de-escalation confirmed would boost risk assets following a period filled with uncertainty and volatility.
Lisibach explained that “if we can resolve the geopolitical questions that we are currently facing, I would think that the global economic takes a rest, risky components of the market will certainly recover, and the cyclicality/the value trade should likely do well. European equities, particularly those that have been under pressure, can probably continue to outperform. So we would definitely look at that angle.”
“General geopolitical and other hedges”
Investors are hesitant to present a base scenario due to the many possible outcomes of the current standoff. Instead, they opt for portfolio hedging to minimize the downside risks associated with a Russian invasion and to capture some of the upsides in the event that there is a deescalation.
Because it’s so unclear, we wouldn’t look at positioning for any material geopolitical danger. “We do have general geopolitical protections, principally in gold. Depending on the source, you might also need oil exposure. Also, we have some government bonds. However, these are of a shorter duration,” Anthony Rayner from Premier Miton Investors, multi-asset manager.
Bhanu Bawaja, UBS Investment Bank’s chief strategist, stated earlier in the week that, outside of Russian assets and energy, the markets hadn’t priced in significant risk.
“We have seen equities come off a little bit, but if you look at consumer durables — because that is the one sector or subsector that would definitely be impacted through weaker growth and higher inflation — in Europe that sector is doing much better than it is in the U.S.” he said.
Baweja stated that U.S. High Yield Debt is underperforming European debt, while the euro has been relatively steady.
The markets are following the “playbook from 2014,”Baweja suggested that this was the time when Russia invaded Crimea, and then the subsequent imposition of sanctions on Russia throughout the summer.
Baweja said that the real event was the oil price rose in one iteration but fell in another. Stocks did not change much so it turned into a very localized event.” Baweja spoke to CNBC Tuesday.
This time, it appears more serious. However, I do not think investors are looking to totally change their thinking. Instead, they want to find hedges and look to diversify their core portfolio.
FX is the most popular hedge
Baweja recommended that investors look for foreign currency markets to hedge their risk, as they are still relatively stable, given the high volatility of equity and bonds due to central bank speculation.
He said, “I would look at CEE(Central and Eastern Europe), FX, places such as dollar-Pole ($zloty), or dollar-Czech [koruna], for hedges, similar to 2014.”
Russian assets and energy have moved significantly, so if things improve, it is unlikely that global equities will see huge relief. Instead, expect Russian assets to rise, while energy should fall.
Baweja advised that FX could be used to hedge the risk if things get worse.
We think that if we must do it in equities we should. DAXHe said that European banks were probably the most effective hedges.”
The Russian equity market and other markets are sensitive to developments geopolitical in Russia. However, the ruble is relatively stable at the 75-mark against the dollar.
CNBC was informed Thursday by Luis Costa of Citi’s CEEMEA FX strategy and rates strategy, that Russian flows are expected to make the ruble the most resilient asset class. The high prices for energy and natural gas point to large current account surpluses.
Costa stated, “And let’s not forget Russia used FX to buy, they used dollars as a derivative of the fiscal law and they stopped buying dollars around a month back in order to support currency.”
“This is making natural flows in Ruble even more positive for the currency, so we think that – in the whole asset array of Ruble risk, of Russia risk, credit, rates, bonds and FX – FX will continue to be the most resilient part of the puzzle here.”
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