KYIV (Reuters – Ukraine is a major European energy consumer with a 41 million population. It is also a significant transit country for Russian Gas to Europe.

On Thursday, Russian forces attacked Ukraine via land, sea, and air. It was the largest attack on a single state in Europe since World War Two.

Ukrainian energy company Naftogas stated on Thursday that there had been no systematic shelling of the country’s infrastructure and that it was under control.

According to experts and official sources, there are several ways energy supply could be affected.

NATURAL GAS

Transit gas pipelines are integrated with the domestic gas supply system. It is highly dependent on supplies of gas from Russia to Europe. It is possible to keep the pressure necessary in the Ukrainian gas system to supply gas to Europe as well as domestic consumers.

Since 2015, Ukraine hasn’t imported any gas from Russia directly. Instead it purchases it from Western traders to make up the Russian gas route from Ukraine to Europe.

Ukraine used 27.3 billion cubic metres (bcm), of gas in 2021. It also produced 19.8 bcm of its own gas. While imports totaled 2.6 bcm and underground storage 4.9 billion cubic metres (bcm), respectively.

The consumed gas was used by households at 32%, heat producers at 24% and industry, army and other users at 44%.

Ukraine can continue to supply gas to the country and its industry if Russia continues gas transit through Ukraine.

Ukraine’s cold season consumption of gas is approximately 140 to 150 million cubic meters (mcm). This does not include its own 55 mcm production. Underground storage can store up to 90 million cubic meters (mcm) of gas.

Ukraine is not importing any gas lately, however 11.3 Bcm gas storage has been maintained by Ukrainian companies.

According to reliable sources, Ukraine will be able, depending on the weather, to supply gas to critical infrastructure and households for up to 5-7 days in case transit is terminated or destroyed.

Transit would be impacted if it was stopped. The system’s pressure would drop and Ukraine wouldn’t have enough gas storage to supply the necessary gas.

According to sources, the shutoff of gas supplies for industry could prolong the system’s life by several days.

Although gas can theoretically be imported at 40 mcm per hour, this is not possible due to the lack of resources and money to purchase it.

The country cannot replace its gas supply with other energy sources, like electricity. It uses gas to generate some electricity but has not enough coal resources for its coal-fired power plants.

ELECTRICITY

The energy ministry estimates that Ukraine uses approximately 23,000 megawatts of electricity and can produce an additional 3,400 megawatts.

Four Ukrainian nuclear power stations account for 55%, while two thermal power plants provide 29%.

But, thermal generation uses part of gas to generate heat. The process can use up to 10mcm of gas per day. Therefore, any disruption in gas supply would have an adverse effect on the production.

Others thermal power plants run on coal. The pro-Russian separatists have taken control of most Ukrainian coal mines. Ukraine has been forced to import it, mostly by sea.

The government claims that power generation companies are required to supply imported coal for their heating seasons. The small coal reserves found at thermal stations means they can’t increase their generation.

Ukraine also imports electricity form Belarus. But, it depends on Minsk (an ally of Russia) and the safety lines.

Ukraine doesn’t have the technology to import electricity from Europe.

GASOLINE

Ukraine’s dependence on gasoline imports from Belarus is nearly 50%. Supplies of Belarusian gasoline increased 17% to 1,000,000 tonnes in 2021. Russian supplies accounted for 30% of the total diesel fuel supply, an important sector that is essential to the army. This was approximately 2 million tonnes.