Philip Blenkinsop

BRUSSELS, (Reuters) – The West’s sanctions won’t stop Russia from invading Ukraine. They will have to be extended and maintained for a while to harm the Russian economy. Analysts and economists agree.

On Friday, the European Commission stated that the United States and its allies have agreed to sanctions on Russia in the financial and energy sector. Technology export restrictions should also be implemented. This will limit Russia’s ability to finance war.

Jacob Kirkegaard (senior fellow at The German Marshall Fund) said Russia might have to restrict technology exports if it is left with no missile chips after a prolonged conflict.

He sees the sanctions, however, as a longer-term, more broad economic strategy, just like other people.

The way we think of economic sanctions is as a tool for encouraging regime change over the long-term. “For this to be successful, it doesn’t matter how many we do, but for how long,” stated Eurointelligence specialist analysis service.

Guntram Wolff (director of think tank Bruegel) stated that there needed to be sanctions in place to protect the long-term. One key element of those sanctions is Europe’s ability of weaning itself off Russian natural gas. That could prove to be a major problem next winter as sustainable energy becomes unaffordable.

He said, “This might mean that we need to heat less and break taboos such as burning up coal or nuclear power plants.”

Also, he said asset freezes for Russia’s oligarchs were a significant omission from current sanctions. This measure is not likely to affect the average Russian but could cause Putin headaches.

The unity of the planned financial sanctions is still in doubt. This sees Russia’s largest banks targeted by the United States and smaller European firms being targeted by the EU.

Russia could be removed from SWIFT, but this would complicate payments.

Officials from the EU point out the loss of 80 billion euro ($89.9 million) in Russian exports and the difficulties that will be faced by the EU member countries like Germany and Italy. However, there is a growing EU voice calling for SWIFT inclusion in another package of actions.

China will likely play an important role in collective sanctions. This is especially after declaring a “no limits” partnership with Moscow earlier in the month. Russia has not been sanctioned.

China’s role is crucial. Kirkegaard said that it has the capability to aid Russia and circumvent technological sanctions. The EU and U.S. both will be able to quickly finesse them and strike in ways that are less harsh on China’s path.”

($1 = 0.8897 euros)