SEOUL (Reuters – South Korea’s exports are likely to have increased by 16 months in February. This is according to a Reuters poll. Although Russia’s invasion and occupation of Ukraine might further destabilize the supply chain and increase costs, Reuters Poll on Friday indicated that they were rising at a slower pace.

The median forecast by 11 economists predicted that February’s outbound shipping volumes would rise 18.2% over a previous year, and imports would increase 25.2%.

Park Sungwoo from DB Financial Investment, said that although we anticipate solid sales growth of important exporting goods, including semiconductors and that oil prices will continue to rise, it is likely that the trade balance remains in the negative zone.

In January, the economy posted a trade deficit of $4.83 billion. Imports rose by 35.3% in comparison to a 15.2% increase in exports.

The rapid spread of Omicron virus, which is highly infectious, has caused a severe shortage in chip supplies and production disruptions across the globe.

While the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on supply chain disruption is currently limited, the longer term could present additional threats to the industry, including a possible loss in chip sales.

Data for the entire month will be released on Tuesday morning at 9 AM GMT (0000 GMT).

The same Reuters poll showed that economists predicted that the February consumer price index would grow 3.5% compared with a year ago, slower than January but no less than a 10.8% increase in November.

It would also mark the fifth month in which inflation has been above 3%.

Inflation forecasts for 2022 were sharply increased by the Bank of Korea to 3.1%, from 2%. The Bank also indicated that it may require a faster pace of tightening if price pressures rise further due to the Ukraine crisis.

To gauge the effect of back-toback hikes, however, the bank held the base rate constant at 1.25 percent on Thursday before raising it again.

A poll conducted Friday showed that 8 economists estimated a decrease of 0.6% in industrial output between December and January.