Julien Ponthus gives a look at what lies ahead for markets today.

The best-selling book “The End of History and the Last Man” by Francis Fukuyama was published thirty years ago. This bestseller popularised the belief that the triumph of liberalism would lead to a new era of prosperity and peace in the world.

The idea has been distorted by a number of developments and trends since then. These include the 9/11 attacks and the rise of populism. Russia’s invasion into Ukraine may be the nail that will end that tale.

This Monday, February 20,22 is a different day than it was one week ago.

Financial markets face a volatile short-term situation that is made worse by the non-relevance of the 2022 outlooks by investment banks at the close to 2021.

Massive sanctions imposed by Western allies including the blockade of certain Russian banks from SWIFT payment system, are sending oil prices over $100/barrel.

It was remarkable to see the rouble fall nearly 30% overnight. This prompted investors rush to secure safe havens such as the gold and dollar, which led the euro to plummet sharply by just 1%.

The falling 9 basis point to 1.89% also highlighted the urgency of park capital.

The current rally in government bonds is not indicative of how central banks are going to react to the crisis.

Inflation is rising, so it makes sense to increase monetary tightening. However, there must be an end to the inevitable impact on economic growth. Goldman Sachs, NYSE:) believes that the conflict could slash as high as 0.4% from euro area GDP in this year.

The bets that the U.S. Federal Reserve would and European Central Bank would proceed with greater caution than was previously anticipated were growing.

European stock markets were the most vulnerable. Futures showed that European blue chips would open lower by about 3%. In Asia, however, MSCI’s regional stock index was almost flat.

Among other major announcements, Norway’s $1.3 Trillion sovereign wealth fund announced that it will divest Russian assets. Britain’s BP (NYSE NYSE:) also made an announcement about its intention to leave the Russian capital Rosnet.

Markets should be more informed by key developments on Monday

Japan’s factories are hit by cuts in car production, Ukraine crisis increases risks

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-European earnings:  Atos, Bak of Ireland, Associated British foods, Erste Bank, Clariant

-U.S. earnings: Hewlett-Packard