Sujata Rao gives a look at what’s ahead for markets.

BlueBay Asset Management’s well-known commentator on emerging markets, Tim Ash, noted that it took Fortress Russia a week to become Rubble Russia.

The rouble has lost a third its value since Monday and is now down another 5%. It’s only a matter time until Russia is removed from equity and bond indexes.

The global markets have been trying to capitalize on the situation; U.S. equity futures and European equity futures, which suffered heavy losses in the past, are now climbing, while safer-haven bonds are falling and the Japanese yen is down.

But, it is possible to hear the echoes of an abandoned fortress.

Inflation and growth are both affected by $100 oil prices. Investors are left with tens to billions in unsold Russian securities. More businesses may follow BP’s lead (NYSE:) and abandon Russia investment at great cost

Tuesday’s PMI data indicated that factories supply chains are recovering as of February. Russia’s commodities footprint is a concern — Russia supplies half the world with palladium and 14% with platinum. 6-7% of all aluminium comes from Russia. The record-breaking aluminium price has been reached, and there have been several shipment delays from Ukraine.

Australia was the perfect example of what bind central bank are in. While policymakers acknowledged the dangers of the crisis, it is unlikely that inflation will not force an interest rate increase by mid-year.

Next — a Russian default? According to Oxford Economics, Russia’s hard currency debts total $55 billion. Its sovereign bonds amount to $2.6 billion. Russia can’t pay its debts without having access to its $640bn forex reserves, or SWIFT Payments systems. Is it willing to pay?

On Tuesday, VEON (NASDAQ) will issue a bond repayment of $417 million to the Russian telecoms company VEON. According to it, there are “alternative ways” of moving cash. It is still waiting.

Markets should be more informed by key developments on Tuesday

The factory activity in Asia is growing, but the Ukraine crisis threatens outlook

Group of Seven ministers of finance discuss Ukraine crisis.

German January retail sales/prelim IPI/HICP

-The State of the Union speech by Joe Biden the President of the USA

Atlanta President Raphael Bostic is one of the Fed speakers

Earnings from the United States: Baidu (NASDAQ), Bank of Nova Scotia Target (NYSE:), Autozone, Kohls, Wendy’s (NASDAQ:), Man U, Domino’s, Salesforce (NYSE:), Nordstrom (NYSE:), Urban Outfitters (NASDAQ:), First Solar (NASDAQ:)