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OPEC+ to decide on oil production policy

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One worker working in the oil field that Almetyevneft (an oil and gaz production board) created.

Getty Images| TASS | Getty Images

On Wednesday, OPEC+, an influential alliance of energy professionals will gather to decide the next stage in production policy.

This comes at a time when crude oil prices rise to new multi-year highs due to supply disruption worries. Russia’s intensifying war with Ukraine.

OPEC, non-OPEC partner countries are scheduled to meet in London at 12:30 p.m. According to energy analysts, the producer group is expected to keep its plans to raise its crude production quota to 400,000 barrels per hour for April.

International Energy Agency (IEA) will host the meeting. saidThe 60-million barrel global release would be implemented to counter disruptions in the energy market caused by sanctions placed on Russia for its war against Ukraine. According to the U.S., 30 million will be derived from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

This reflects the expected magnitude of disruptions to the global energy market.

International benchmark Brent crudeFutures were trading at $109.18 per barrel Wednesday morning. This is an increase of around 4%. Brent reached $113.02 per barrel in the earlier session. This is its highest point since June 2014.

Meanwhile, U.S. West Texas IntermediateFutures were at $107.44 per barrel. This is 3.8% more than the previous August 2013. Oil contracts had surged to $110.67 earlier than usual, their highest levels since August 2013.

John Kilduff is a partner with Again Capital. He described Russia’s aggression against Ukraine as “a momentous event for the market, the entire world, and supply.” He called upon the de facto OPEC leader Saudi Arabia, to mobilize its resources to support Ukraine, as well as stand against Russia’s non-OPEC partners.

Kilduff stated that it was time for Saudi Arabia “to step up” and become the friend they claim to be to the United States.

We know that the Saudis will do everything in their power to end this rally. He said that they could put an additional 1,000,000 to 2,000,000 barrels of oil per day on the market in a matter of seconds.

“This is what they should talk about, do and act towards, be more pro-West, pro-Ukraine and with their business partners of Russia.

Around 40% of all world’s oil supply is supplied by OPEC.

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Pictured are the Kern River oil fields in Bakersfield California.

Jonathan Alcorn | Reuters

Alex Booth from Kpler is the head of research. He said that OPEC+’s problem was Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates are currently the only countries with the spare capacity to increase production.

The danger here is that if they do this across OPEC+, they will show that they don’t have the resources to really manage it. They are pitting themselves against Russia and Saudi Arabia if they do it alone. Booth said that they were in a difficult spot within the group on Wednesday’s CNBC “Street Signs Europe”.

While there will certainly be plenty of external pressure on the U.S. to produce, I believe the response is that they are not stopping the U.S. from producing. Why don’t we talk at home about how you can increase the oil supply in the U.S. “Never mind what we’re doing.

Eurasia Group’s political risk consulting firm Eurasia Group stated that the Gulf countries are affected by two factors: geopolitics and oil.

According to them, “Saudi Arabians and UAE won’t pursue any policy positions regarding the Russia-Ukraine Conflict that could end up causing an important rift in oil market management framework which was key to long term stability of revenues,”

Zweifels remain about the ability of OPEC+ to deliver.

Producer alliance members are currently working to unwind record-breaking supply cuts of approximately 10 million barrels each day. This historic production reduction was implemented in April 2020 in order to assist the recovery of the energy market following the pandemic coronavirus.

Last month, OPEC+ swiftly decidedThe March 2018 return of 400,000 barrels per daily will be approved.

The U.S. and India have been pressing the group to boost production in order to bring down prices and help the economic recovery. However, the group is resisting calls to increase oil prices faster.

Louise Dickson is a senior oil market analyst from Rystad Energy. She said that a significant SPR announcement by the U.S. or other importing nations on Tuesday would not impact the decision of OPEC+ to raise its quota ceiling to 400,000 barrels/day for April.

Dickson explained that OPEC+’s promise to improve supply is a “paper promise”. He said, however, that our supply database indicated that participating OPEC+ members were actually producing around 800,000 bpd lower than stated targets. This has contributed to the shortage in the market and further fueled the bullish pricing environment.

Stephen Brennock is a senior analyst with London-based PVM oil Associates. He also stated that expectations were such OPEC+ would likely “rubber stamp” an agreement to increase 400,000 barrels daily in April.

He said that there are still doubts about whether the company will fulfill its promise, given its track record of not meeting its production targets.

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