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Putin’s popularity could be damaged after Ukraine invasion


As members of the Ukrainian community demonstrate in Montreal against the Consulate General, they are holding a photograph of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Andrej Ivanov | AFP | Getty Images

If Russian President Vladimir PutinHis 2014 invasion of Ukraine, during which Crimea was annexed by Russia, saw him gain huge popularity.

In February 2014, Putin was 69% popular (having stagnated at 61% in Nov 2013 but rising to 82% after Russia’s move onto the Ukrainian peninsula in April 2014.

This was in spite of the fact that Russia had been sanctioned and condemned around the world for Putin’s actions. rubleTo fall against the dollarA lot of Russians have seen their living costs rise, which has led to a significant increase in the cost of living.

Putin’s time could prove to be quite different.

Russia’s broader invasion of Ukraine has been widely deplored, and this time the West has taken united and unprecedented steps to punish Ukraine, imposing massive sanctions not only Russia’s economy but targeting its financial systems and ability to function — or be visible — on a global stage, with cultural and sporting institutions like the Eurovision Song Contest and FIFA suspending Russia’s participation in events.

Ordinary Russians have begun to feel the effects of Putin’s invasion in Ukraine and the sanctions that they imposed on them. Again, the ruble is falling against the dollar. prompting Russia’s central bank to raise interest rates to 20% on Monday, from 9.5%. In an attempt to get their money quickly, desperate Russians waited in line at ATMs and banks.

An economic crisis is expected to make things worse this time around, so analysts don’t believe Putin will be given a boost by Russia invading Ukraine.

His popularity ratings in February stood at 69%, according to the Levada Center, but that was a poll of 1,626 Russian adults conducted between Jan. 27 and Feb. 2 — that is, before Russia invaded Ukraine and sanctions were imposed and before Russia conceded that its own military had seen casualties during its assault.

It’s hard to get an accurate death toll on either side — Russia does not publish such figures — but an advisor to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Saturday that around 3,500 Russian soldiers had been killed or injured so far during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Reuters reported. The number was higher by Ukraine’s defense minister on Sunday at 4,300. However, the official said that the numbers were not verified.

Max Hess from AKE International’s senior political risk analysis stated that he did not believe Russia’s invasion in Ukraine would make Putin more popular. He added, “It certainly won’t impact any like after Crimea.

“Even if it all ends now … it seems already — based on Ukraine numbers — that probably more Russians have died [during the invasion of Ukraine]He stated Monday that “than died in the Chechen Conflict in the 90s”.

Hess referred to the war between Russia, Ukraine and Syria as “a fratricidal conflict” and cited the history of the neighboring countries. These ties have contributed to an understanding between Russia’s and Ukraine’s attitudes towards the invasion. Yes, indeed. protests in Russia against the invasion.

Hess had noted how he had talked to many people about Russia’s invasion. Hess stated that he was stunned to see how quick “faith has evaporated” in Putin.

BlueBay Asset Management’s emerging markets strategist Timothy Ash stated that Putin is “spectacularly wrong-calculated” in Ukraine.

It is now clear that Putin had a long-term game plan to surround the Ukrainian forces in Donbas and take out the key economic and military infrastructure. Then encircle Kyiv, Kharkhiv, and then assume Zelensky would give up the ghost. Ukrainian troops wouldn’t fight, and Western sanctions would be weak. “I think he also intended to establish a puppet regime at Kyiv,” Timothy Ash (blueBay Asset Management emerging markets strategist) said Sunday in an emailed comment.

He noted that he was “stunningly wrong” on every count. Russian mothers will mourn the loss their sons by thousands. Russians will experience a drop in their standard of living and a reduction in their savings.

Can the Ukraine offensive work against it?

Russia’s attack on Ukraine is often seen to be motivated by Putin’s wish to see Kyiv’s regime change and to get rid of the pro-Western government led by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Ukraine’s stoicism under attack and the plucky bravery of its citizens and leadership has drawn plaudits from around the world, and has prompted Zelenskyy’s popularity to soar with one poll finding that 91% of Ukrainians support his defense of the country against Russia.

It poll conducted by the Rating Sociological group, a Ukrainian non-governmental polling organization, found that 70% of respondents said they believed Ukraine would be able to fend off Russia’s invasion while 16% said they were not sure.

Analysts are concerned that a large number of Russian military vehicles approaching KyivIt is likely that Russian forces will launch an attack large-scale on Kiev’s capital. This could result in widespread casualties.

Russia has already been accused of indiscriminate attacksUkrainian civilians using cluster munitions and planning to use a vacuum bombRussia denied the claim. Dmitry Peskov (Putin’s spokesperson) called the allegations fake news and claimed that Russia focuses only on military targets and not civilians.

Cluster munitions scatter smaller bombs randomly over wide areas. Over 100 states have already signed up for this program. a 2008 UN treatyTheir use is prohibited even though Russia (or Ukraine) has not yet signed the treaty.

Analysts predict that the human cost of a Russian attack on Kyiv will be enormous.

“We are certain to see thousands of casualties both on the sides and probably tens or thousands among the Ukrainians,” President of Eurasia Group Ian Bremmer stated Monday. He also predicted that “if the invasion continues apace it will be a matter days to two weeks before the capital’s capture and the Ukrainian government is overthrown.”

At nearly 5x personnel, and 10x military spending, the Ukrainian military forces cannot match Russia’s military power. In an emailed message, he stated that Russian troops were on the outskirts Kyiv after almost a week of fighting.

Bremmer pointed out that Russia is “losing communications war”, and was now seen almost worldwide as the villain. This contrasts with the heroism shown in Ukraine’s president.

The international community sees Putin as angry, inconsistent and addled, while the Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky has been a hero to many, despite not being regarded or loved before the conflict. Ukrainians have been more motivated to fight (and western countries to support them)—which would have been more challenging if Ukraine’s internet had been shut down.”

Posing the question — what do the Russians do with Ukraine once they “take” it? Bremmer thought that Ukraine’s population would be “overtly hostile to” any Russian government established in Kyiv.

Moscow will have to be very careful about managing it. It will find itself in an economic basket situation even before fighting, and is now at risk of economic collapse. Plus, all sanctions will apply. [are]Russia is being forced to comply. In the meantime, the exiled Ukrainian government will be considered legitimate by Europe and will provide arms to those who want to defeat the Russian-supported Ukrainian regime,” he stated, noting that Russia’s political legitimacy would be challenged externally.