South Korea could win a conservative victory in its upcoming presidential elections, which would lead to a more rigid position on North Korea or China. This could potentially spark new tensions throughout the Asia-Pacific.

Yoon Seok, a conservative People Power Party member, and Lee Jaemyung (ruling Democratic Party) are leading candidates for March 9th. Gallup Korea conducted a series of polls that showed Yoon and Lee leading the race. On February 25, 1,000 people surveyed and Lee received 38% approval, while Yoon got 37%. In a second poll, 35% of respondents rated Yoon’s approval as equal. 

This election is dominated by economic issues and housing. But given North Korea’s ongoing missile activityAt home there is anti-China sentiment. Foreign policy questions are expected to also weigh on sentiment. There is a lot riding on South Korea’s geopolitical destiny, with each candidate having divergent views about relations with North Korea and China.

Kim Jong Un’s government is increasing missile testing as part of diplomatic negotiations with the United States. United States and its alliesStill at a standstill It is a common development but it comes against the backdrop. Russia’s invasion of UkraineIt raises fears about regional unrest. According to Japanese and South Korean officials, Pyongyang launched what appeared to be a medium-range missile.

Yoon, following the conservative tradition of his predecessors in conservatism, demands that North Korea denuclearize first before they can agree to economic and peace pacts. He told South Korean newspaper Kookmin Ilbo in November that he was considering cancelling the 2018 Comprehensive Military Agreement. This is a milestone diplomatic achievement of President Moon Jae In’s reign.

Lee, DP’s Lee, supports Moon’s diplomatic engagement and economic collaboration with North Korea to initiate denuclearization. Lee also supportes the removal of sanctions, provided that North Korea does not violate them. Lee would also be open to declaring an end the Korean war, as Yoon did not. This is to help Pyongyang return to the negotiation table.

Analysts say that Lee will not copy Moon’s policies, even though they share similar views. CNBC spoke to Jenny Town, senior fellow at the independent Stimson Center. She said that Moon had been heavily involved in building inter-Korean relations and Moon is likely to continue to do so. Town also serves as the Director of 38 North, the Center’s North Korea research arm.

Yoon insists on the resumption of joint military exercises between North Korea and the United States, further complicating things. According to Fei Xue of the Economist Intelligence Unit Asia analyst, these have been diminished since 2018. Kim Jong Un will be furious if there is a revival. Yoon is “harmless enough to force North Korea into abandoning diplomacy entirely, as was the case during Lee’s tenure and Park,” KhangX. Vu was a Boston College doctoral student, and East Asian politics specialist.

In the last few weeks, South Korean media has seen a wave of anti-China protests. controversies surrounding the Winter Olympics in Beijing. This, combined with concerns over Beijing’s aggression toward the South China Sea and Indo-Pacific neighbors has made the Asian giant a key talking point during this election. Given Washington and Beijing’s history of rivalry, South Korea’s position regarding China is closely tied to the relationship it has with the United States. Seoul finds itself often in the position of prioritizing one or the other of these superpowers. 

Town stated that Lee is likely to maintain a strategic ambiguity relationship with China and seek to balance economic and security relations. Lee is aware, just like Moon, that he requires Chinese support for both the North Korea and economic issues. Xue agreed that Lee Jae-myung was more worried about China’s economic impact on South Korea and would therefore take a neutral stance. Xue said that this will be increasingly challenging due to the increasing tensions between China and the US.

Yoon, on the other hand, wants to strengthen security cooperation with U.S. Between 2016 and 2017, South Korea was in a long-running standoff with Beijing. The U.S. installation of its anti-missile systems resulted, for the most part, in a year-long dispute between Seoul and Beijing. South Korea’s tourism industry, as well as their cosmetics and entertainment sectors were severely affected by Chinese backlash. Xue stated that Yoon would also like to join the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, as well as the Five Eyes intelligence-sharing program. This is “despite China possibly opposing such moves.” Town stated that Yoon’s openness to side with the U.S. would be challenged “if and when China begins to pressure Seoul.”