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Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is baffling military analysts

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Russian tanks pass through Armyansk, northern Crimea on February 24, 2022.

Getty Images| Tass | Getty Images

After one week of Russia’s incursion in Ukraine, all military analysts have agreed on one point: Russia’s invasion is not going according to plan. The invasion appears slow, disorganized, and poorly coordinated to the observers.

According to analysts, Russia expected to achieve greater gains than it did and to encounter far less resistance by the Ukrainian volunteer fighters and forces as they attacked different cities in the south, east, and north of Ukraine.

Russian forces have so far claimed one major city — Kherson — having heavily shelled and surrounded the port in the last several days.

In the meantime, fighting is ongoing around major cities Kharkiv and Mariupol, as well as Kyiv. although a huge column of Russian military vehicles which has been snaking its way to the capital this weekThe economy appears to be in a rut lately, despite unconfirmed reports of logistics problems as well as fuel and food shortages.

The Atlantic Council think tank has senior military colleagues who summarize Russia’s difficulties. stated in an online post on WednesdayRussia made crucial strategic mistakes in the first week of combat. This included its inability to establish air superiority, and provide support for its ground forces with air air.

“During the first week of the war, Russian ground forces have become bogged down outside of the northern Ukrainian cities of Kharkiv and Kyiv due to their failure to establish air superiority (which has resulted in significant aircraft and helicopter losses), too few troops to execute three simultaneous thrusts (toward Kyiv and Kharkiv, and north from Crimea), poor coordination of fires and maneuver, significant logistical issues, and stronger than expected Ukrainian resistance,” they said in an assessment published by the think tank.

In Borodyanka, you can see the destroyed Russian military vehicles on the street. The scene is part of Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine. It was taken in Kyiv Region, Ukraine. March 3, 2022. This picture was taken by a drone. 

Maksim Levin | Reuters

Military experts agreed that Russia’s naval supremacy in the Black Sea contributed to the success of its southern operations. Russian forces broke away from the Crimean Peninsula, taking territory in South Ukraine, and the seizure of Kherson, the largest victory, was the most significant for the Russian side during the invasion.

The experts noted that although Ukraine had fought back and stopped plans to win quickly and decisively, the situation was still dangerous. Russia is moving to encircle Kyiv and Kharkiv and appears to have switched to indiscriminate long-range fires — resulting in significant collateral damage in residential areas— and is making significant progress in the south.”

Are you behind or ahead of your schedule?

Western intelligence officials have suggested that Russia’s invasion is behind the Kremlin’s scheduleAccording to NBC News, there are reports that Russian President Vladimir Putin feels increasingly frustrated by Russia’s military actions in Ukraine.

A warning was also made that Putin could see the only way out of this situation. doubling down on the violenceRussia uses force against Russia and other nations. analysts have questioned Putin’s rationality when it comes to Ukraine.

Russia is not allowed to access Putin’s inner circle. Russia’s plan for Ukraine is only guesswork. Putin claimed that Thursday everything “is going to plan” and stated that “all objectives that were set are being resolved or achieved successfully.”

He also again reiterated Russia’s aims, being the “demilitirization and denazification” of Ukraine — a statement widely disputed and rubbished and seen as Russia’s attempts to vilify the Ukrainian leadership — and promised compensation for the families of dead and wounded servicemen.

Begging to differ with Putin’s assessment (or propaganda) on Russian progress in the invasion, former CIA director Gen. David Petraeus, said this week that Putin’s war in Ukraine is “going terribly” for Russia, telling CNN on Wednesday that “at the strategic level, he has essentially united most of the rest of the world … And then on the battlefield, it’s going terribly.”

Russia, he stated was stretched beyond its mechanical and logistical capabilities. Russia’s soldiers (some of them less experienced conscripts), are likely to feel exhausted when confronted by a determined adversary like Ukraine.

Ukrainian soldiers load weapons into an old vehicle, north of Kyiv. March 3, 2022.

AFP – Getty Images| AFP | Getty Images

Col. Liam Collins (founder director of The Modern War Institute in New York) agrees with this point. Collins said on Thursday that the Ukrainian army and the thousands of volunteers who had stayed to protect their homeland would continue to put up a strong resistance in Kyiv.

According to him, “Russians not only have to defeat the Ukrainian forces but they also have to combat all of these armed volunteers who are going to be attacking them every day.” He told BBC’s The Briefing Room that Ukrainians were planning to insurrect Russia.

He said, “It’s going be worse than the Russians had to in Afghanistan,” and referred to the Soviet Union’s long-drawn, bloody and costly invasion of Afghanistan in 1979, which lasted ten years and resulted in the death of approximately 15,000 Soviet soldiers.

It’s going to not be as strong as the resistance the Baltic countries put up during the Cold War. If he does, it will be very costly. [Putin]He said that he was going to remain an occupier, and therefore he will eventually have to move on whether it is in one or five or ten years.”

Over a million have fled Ukraine, despite the fact that Ukraine’s military and volunteers are determined to face Russian soldiers approaching Kyiv with a large-scale military convoy. Some Western officials like Boris Johnson (British Prime Minister) have accused Putin of war crimes after civilian casualties occurred in Ukraine.

In wartime, accurate data about casualties and injuries, and loss of military hardware are difficult to find. Both sides have an interest in highlighting their victories and achievements and ignoring those of their opponent. As they try to sustain the morale of both troops and civilians alike, it is important that each side minimizes their losses.

It is hard to determine the exact death toll of Russia-Ukraine conflict in chaos. However, Ukraine claims that more than 5,000 Russian troops died during the conflict. Russia’s defense ministry claimed that only 498 Russian soldiers were killed and that another 1,597 were wounded.

Russia took many days to admit and even concede that certain of its personnel were injured and died. One military analyst told CNBC Wednesday that Russia thought it was “completely easy” to invade Ukraine.

“[They thought] they would roll right in and the Ukrainians would give up,” Jack Jacobs, a retired colonel in the United States army, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Wednesday, saying Russia had underestimated the tenacity of ordinary Ukrainian people.

He said that Russia was not able to quickly achieve its military goals because the Russians “are not as well-trained as they believe they are, or as we believed they were,” he stated.

Global trend is’still not favorable’

Ukraine isn’t a NATO member, and the Western military alliance doesn’t have any obligation to defend it. However, several Western countries sent weapons to Ukraine in order to assist it.

A resistance has been able to win hearts and minds across the globe. However, it does not appear that Ukraine is in the best of health. One analyst stated that Ukraine must have more Western assistance if Russia wants to slow down its destructive and demoralizing progress.

In an email, Andrius Tursa (Central and Eastern Europe advisor at Teneo Intelligence) stated that “while the Russian advance appears to be slow and costly and difficult, the overall trend for Ukraine is still unfavorable.”

“Unless the West significantly steps up its military support or if there are mass defections/disobedience in the Russian armed forces, the latter holds more chances to prevail in the longer term, given its considerable advantages in multiple domains.”

For the defense and morale of the Ukrainian side, it is crucial to control the capital Kyiv as well as President Volodymyr Zilensky’s survival. Even if Russia slows down its military advance, Putin could still use more powerful weapons or nuclear threats to get Kyiv to surrender,” he said.

Looking further ahead, analysts agree that even if Russia “wins” in Ukraine, that will be the easy part, and holding the country — whose population predominantly has a pro-Western attitude and will be even more anti-Russian after the invasion — will be much harder.

Tursa stated that the “extremely strong resistance of the Ukrainian army, local population, reaffirms expectation that long-term occupation large portions of the Ukrainian territory will be extremely difficult,” Tursa noted. He also said that any new administration in Kyiv that is believed to be part of Russia’s plan “would lack legitimacy” and “would struggle to stay in control.”

Local workers install anti-tanks obstructions on Kyiv’s road as Russia invades Ukraine.

Carlos Barria | Reuters

Others agree. Tim Dowse, senior associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, said on Twitter on Wednesday that “despite all the visible failings, realistically it is hard to see how Russia will not eventually prevail militarily in Ukraine. This is too big a imbalance.

“How will Russia — indefinitely — occupy, control and administer a very large country of 40m [million]”An overwhelming hostile population, with a ruin economy, major reconstruction needed for damaged infrastructure, and possibly a severe humanitarian crisis?” he stated.

Dowse asked whether public servants and police would accept orders from these people, even if Russia could find Ukrainians to form a new government. His conclusion was: “Will not military victory be just the beginning, and not the end of Putin’s problems?”

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