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Russia’s Ukraine conflict, big inflation report will keep the stock market volatile in coming week


Traders in the NYSE Floor, Feb. 25, 2022.

Source: NYSE

Russia’s attack on Ukraine will be the main focus as worried investors monitor inflation and oil price rises over the next week.

In volatile trading last week, stocks fell as oil rose over 20% and prices of a host other commodities rose because of supply fears. Bonds were sought by investors as a way to protect themselves, pushing prices up and the market higher. 10-year TreasuryFriday’s yield was 1.72% Dollar rallied pushing it to 1.72% Friday. dollar indexUp 2% for the week

“We don’t know what might happen in the next weekend. “It looks like Russia is ramping up, and they are getting more aggressive,” Jim Caron said. He’s the head of macro strategies at Morgan Stanley Investment Management for global fixed income.

The 10-year note yield may rise 10 to 15% if nothing happens this weekend or there are peace talks. Caron stated that this swing could occur. Yields are opposite to price. (1 basis point equals 0.01%.)

Investors will be focusing on the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate increase on March 16th, so they will keep it in mind. In the period before their meeting, Fed officials won’t be speaking publicly.

This week is relatively slow on the economic calendar, save for Thursday’s report about February’s consumer prices index.

Dow Jones reports that economists anticipate headline inflation rising to 7.8% in the year to 7,8% from 7.5% January. That’s the highest rate since 1982. The headline inflation also includes energy and food prices.

The upside is the risk. Marc Chandler (chief market strategist, Bannockburn Global Forex) stated that it will shock if we achieve an 8% handle.

The market’s trading is another important aspect for investors. These are the S&P 500In the week just ended, the stock market fell by 1.3% to 4,328. NasdaqLoss of 2.8% on 13,313.

The major averages here are in a downward trend. Paul Hickey co-founder of Bespoke said that they seem to rise and then lose steam. It is best to remain cautious, at least until you can get some relief from that. This is definitely worrying.

Hickey claimed that the market acts in much the same way it has during conflicts.

Hickey stated that in the short term, “there’s a lot more uncertainty”. “I think it is similar.” You tend to see a lot of sloshing around – big swings up and down — and then eventually things start to stabilize a few months later…The question is where does this one go?”

Boiling oil

After a week of gains oil prices jumped again on Friday. West Texas IntermediateFor the first time since 2008, WTI has risen above $115 WTI gained 7.4% on Friday to reach $115.68. This is the first time since 2008. Investors were scared by Russia’s fight for Europe’s biggest nuclear power station early Friday.

Fear of inflation has been heightened by the Russian invasion in Ukraine. economists are already raising their inflation forecasts, due to rising oil prices. Because Russia is such an important producer of wheat and palladium as well as aluminum, the whole commodities cluster has moved higher.

Rising oil prices are a concern because they could cause one of the largest inflationary hits and can happen quickly.

Russia stands out as a large commodity exporter that can impact multiple markets. With Europe its primary market, Russia is the biggest exporter of oil and natural gas in the world. It exports both wheat and palladium the most.

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U.S. motorists are already feeling the effects of an increase in crude oil prices. According to the Associated Press, gasoline prices rose 11 cents per day for unleaded gas and by 26 cents over a week. AAA.

John Kilduff of Again Capital, a partner said that the national average might rise to $4 per gallon by next week.

Kilduff stated that Friday’s oil market was seeing brisk purchases. He said that there was still time to go higher as Russian crude oil is being lost.

While the U.S. didn’t sanction Russian energy and allies, sanctions had an impact on buyers, bankers, and shippers, who were afraid of being subject to sanctions on Russia’s financial system.

Kilduff said, “It was pretty evident nobody wanted to go short going into Saturday.” As we price in Russian crude oil’s loss, there is still time to go higher.

Oil traders will also be watching closely to see if Iran agrees to sell oil to the international market in exchange for its end of nuclear activities. Although Iran could bring 1,000,000 barrels back onto the market, analysts believe there will be an insufficient supply.

Week ahead calendar


Earnings: Ciena, Squarespace,ThredUp

3.00 PM. Credit for consumers


Earnings: Dick’s Sporting Goods,Bumble, Casey’s General Stores Sumo Logic,Stitch Fix Petco

6:30 a.m. NFIB survey of small businesses

8:15 a.m.

9:00 AM Wholesale Trade


Earnings: Campbell Soup, Marqeta, Fossil, Asana, Oatly, Thor Industries, Crowdstrike,United Natural Foods Express, Adidas, Vera Bradley

10:00 AM JOLTS

Thursday, Ulta Beauty, American Outdoor Brands, DocuSign,Get Your Wheels up Experience, Zumiez, Rivian Automotive

7:45 a.m. European Central Bank policy decision

8:30 a.m. 8:30 a.m.

8.30 a.m.

2:00 p.m. Federal budget


10:00 a.m. Consumer sentiment

10:00 am QSS