How will Russia’s war with Ukraine end? Here are 5 possible outcomes
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Soldiers and civilians with assault rifles were trained in Lviv, Ukraine, on March 5, 2022.
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Less than two weeks into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the country’s people and armed forces continue to mount a staunch — and undeniably brave — resistance against Russian forces.
Many analysts and strategists think that despite Ukraine’s bravery and determination in facing off multiple, sustained Russia military aggressions in the south, east and north of the country’s borders, it will only be a matter time until Russia is overthrown.
What comes next for Ukraine could be bleak, these experts say, with many expecting a long and drawn-out conflict, noting that even in the most positive scenario — that Russia withdraws its troops and Ukraine remains a sovereign nation — Europe is unlikely to return to the pre-war status quo.
CNBC examines the potential outcomes of Ukraine’s elections and the possibilities for what could happen in each one.
1. Weak control
Russia-Ukraine war observers close to the situation say that the volatile and constantly changing conflict in Ukraine makes it difficult for them to predict what the future holds. Both Moscow and the West are unpredictable.
But it is generally believed that Russian President Vladimir Putin wants to create a pro-Russian government at Kyiv.
It is not clear when or how it will happen, but Eurasia Group believes that Russia could gain control over eastern Ukraine up to the Dnipro River and establish a puppet government. Then, Russian forces would take power in Kyiv following a prolonged siege.
Cliff Kupchan, Eurasia Group Chairman, and his colleagues wrote Thursday that “a weak Ukrainian state” will likely be headed from Lviv. This is a small city located in Ukraine’s west, near the border to Poland. The semi-exiled government would likely receive “heavy support” from the West.
Analysts predicted that refugees would flow from Ukraine to Western Europe in the range of 5 to 10 millions.
Ukrainian soldiers helped an elderly woman cross a bridge when she evacuated the city of Irpin in northwest Kyiv on March 7, 2022.
AFP – Getty Images| AFP | Getty Images
Eurasia Group forecast that NATO would “significantly assist the Ukrainian military and state with materiel” in such an event. NATO has thus far declined to interfere militarily in the conflict. [military materials and equipment]Support the rebellion in Eastern Ukraine.” However, they warned of the possibility of aerial clashes between NATO and Russian planes.
Sometimes, Russia’s military strategy was plagued by logistical issues that confused the picture about Russia’s primary or immediate goals.
To date, only one city has definitively fallen to the Russians since the invasion began in the early morning of Feb. 24 — Kherson — although others like Mariupol, in the south, appear to be perilously close amid food, water and power shortages.
As the conflict progresses, Russia will pull out all the stops in order to take more territory.
Scott Boston, a senior defense analyst at the RAND Corporation, told CNBC Friday that the Russians “have a whole lot of combat power left and a lot of capacity to scale up the violence, which seems to already be happening. It’s possible that this situation will continue for some time.
2. What is the difference between purging and partitioning?
Some analysts agree that any patchy control over Ukraine by Russia could lead to some kind of partitioning of the country, particularly as Russia becomes firmly entrenched in eastern Ukraine — particularly in the Donbas region where it recognized the independence of two pro-Russian republics ahead of its invasion of the wider country.
Taras Kuzio is a researcher fellow at The Henry Jackson Society. wrote in an article for the Atlantic Council on ThursdayMoscow stated that Moscow is planning to target “the total military conquest” of Ukraine. This would be followed by a partition of the country and an enormous purge of its civilian population.
Putin seems to have one goal: to erase all vestiges and identities of Ukraine, while threatening the country with a dire future in Russia as a militarist dictatorship. He said that this vision was in line with Putin’s stated goals for the military campaign, as well as his history of public contempt towards Ukraine and animosity toward it.
Many questions remain about who would lead the loyalist government in Ukraine. One that might resemble Alexander Lukasenko’s Belarusian counterpart. Kuzio mentioned that Moscow may be looking to install Viktor Yanukovych the former Ukrainian president, who was removed from his power by Ukrainian lawmakers in 2014. He fled Kyiv for Russia.
Kuzio observed that Yanukovych’s illegal removal by Western-backed coup would fit perfectly with Kremlin propaganda.
3. Insurgency
Most people warn that the Ukrainians would fight any puppet government, and the conflict will descend into insurgency. Those remaining in Ukraine are trying to topple any such regime using any available means.
BlueBay Asset Management’s emerging markets strategist Tim Ash has said Russia will likely face an extended, costly, and difficult occupation of Ukraine by close observers like Tim Ash.
“If Putin wins the war in Ukraine, then the trillion dollar question remains: How will he win the peace? The Ukrainians have enjoyed 30 years freedom which they enjoy, so how does Putin get the clock back to 1991′ [the collapse of the Soviet Union]Without brutal suppression, which would make him and his puppet government in Kyiv international pariahs. This is not 1944, 1956, 1968 or 1968. [the Soviet law enforcement agency]But 2022 was the year that civilians were forced to submit.”
“Ukrainians are going to resist hard and long, no matter what happens in the military conflicts.” Ash stated in an emailed comment on February 25, one day after Russia invaded Ukraine, that news 24/7 and internet would expose Putin’s cruelty for everyone to see.
Ukrainian soldiers are cleaning their guns as they make preparations to go back to Irpin war on March 5, 2022, Kyiv (Ukraine).
Getty Images| Getty Images
There’s of course the possibility that a Ukrainian fightback doesn’t pose a significant challenge to Russian forces that remain in Ukraine — after all, thousands of fighters are civilians that have taken up arms and have been hastily trained.
Other analysts warn of a “quagmire” — where there is no easy solution for what would likely be a heavily-destroyed Ukraine, or for Russia — if an insurgency continued long term.
This scenario was outlined by the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, Barry Pavel and Peter Engelke. They noted that Russia’s win in Ukraine would not be worth it because of all that has been lost.
According to the strategists, this scenario could result in a “significant, sustained human- and financial cost to Russia” because Russia will have to use far more resources over a shorter time frame than originally planned. NATO would provide “covert, very solid defensive assistance” to Ukraine’s resistance.
This scenario sees “the conflict draining Moscow’s resolve and ultimately forcing a withdrawal following much violence and death.” It is reminiscent of Russia’s unpopular, costly and inexorable invasion of Afghanistan in 1979. The conflict lasted 10 years, and resulted to 15,000 deaths.
According to the strategists, Russia would soon realize that it had “once again fought a non-winnable battle, the proverbial impasse that has trapped many strong states through the course of history.”
This scenario may seem positive for Ukraine but Russia would become a pariah at the global level, withdrawing from a costly invasion and Ukraine would be “devastated”.
4. NATO vs. Russia
NATO, the Western military alliance has refused to direct intervene in Russia-Ukraine conflicts as this would put it in conflict with Moscow. Moscow has, however, repeatedly warned it that it will not allow any other country “to interfere” with its special military operation in Ukraine.
The potential for conflicts to break out on their territories is a major concern of countries along the EU’s eastern flank (and NATO’s). These include Poland, Romania, and Baltic States.
If Russia prevails in Ukraine, analysts including Ash have warned of a new “Iron Curtain” descending on Eastern Europe, creating two opposing geopolitical blocs reminiscent of those in the Cold War — the EU (and NATO nations) on one side of a potentially militarized border and Ukraine and other countries in Russia’s political orbit (such as Belarus and Moldova) on the other.
In emailed comments Monday, Ian Bremmer of Eurasia Group stated that such a scenario is “a hotbed in Europe.” The West should not send troops to support Ukrainians, or implement a no flying zone over Ukraine. He said that this would result in direct confrontation between NATO forces and Russian troops. It could also lead to World War III.
He stated that anything less than this is acceptable: You can send fighter planes and other advanced weapon systems to Ukraine, give Ukraine real-time intelligence about the disposition of Russian troops, and take all economic measures necessary to eliminate the Russian economy.
Bremmer thinks that Putin sees the help as “acts of war” by NATO and USA allies against Russia. He is entitled to retaliation.
Bremmer suggested that Russia may resort to further indirect attacks such as cyberattacks on critical infrastructures, disinformation campaigns, and the possibility of sanctioning terrorism within and against NATO nations.
It is highly unlikely that Russia will launch military strikes against NATO forces. NATO considers this a tripwire to a larger war. But support for Chechen terrorist attack on frontline NATO countries delivering all the weapons. But that’s another story. NATO is unlikely to strike directly against nuclear powers; intelligence must be increased to counter or minimize the effect of such efforts,” Bremmer stated.
Strategy experts based in Eastern Europe have no doubt that NATO can be dragged into the conflict.
CNBC was told by Michal Baranowski (director of the German Marshall Fund’s Warsaw office) that Putin stated what he wanted. Putin said that he needed to “change the government in Kyiv” and while he was making his demands, he meant the Eastern flank of NATO as well. Don’t panic, not only must we be fighting the attacks on Kyiv. But also the other lines.
The world is changing. There is no going back … we are in an entirely new era,” he said.
We are facing a long battle, it isn’t going to end in a short time, and this fight isn’t just about Ukraine. “This is possibly the greatest challenge we have seen in Europe since World War II,” said he.
5. What is a miracle?
An unambiguous withdrawal of Russian military forces from Ukraine, according to analysts, would be the best outcome.
Scowcroft Center’s analysts stated that Ukraine may see NATO’s defense capabilities increase in the best possible way to end the conflict. This would allow it to defeat Moscow’s advances and “overcome all odds.”
According to this scenario, Putin wouldn’t be able to overthrow Kyiv and establish a puppet government. However, “the determination of the Ukrainian resistance forces creates a stalemate in the battlefield that favors defenders”, the Atlantic Council’s strategists Barry Pavel, Peter Engelke and Jeffrey Cimmino observed.
The analysts claimed that Putin, faced with the possibility of economic collapse, and a lengthy and expensive slog in Ukraine for Russia, would be ordering the withdrawal of its troops in the “miracle” scenario.
Analysts warned that even such an outcome, where Ukraine is a sovereign nation and NATO faces a better security situation, could still be dangerous.
It left behind a legacy of bitterness, with thousands dying on each side. While a democracy Ukraine emerged from the conflict unscathed but with its Russian neighbor still in danger, it faces uncertain times. The Russian political landscape is at an ebb point. They said that Russia’s behavior with the rest will be determined by whether the country favors Putin or not.
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