KUALA LUMPUR – In the coming months, palm oil prices could rise to a record 8,100 ringgit ($1,938) a tonne due to a fall in world edible oil stocks, and a decline of export surpluses (including the effect of war in Ukraine), analyst James Fry indicated on Wednesday.

The local crude palm oil price in Malaysia was expected to be between 6,600-8.100 Ringgit per ton until July. However, it will drop to 6,200-7,000 Ringgit in the fourth and fifth quarters as supply grows and decreases.

Fry, Chairman of LMC International Agribusiness Consulting, stated that the cupboard was empty and suggested there are no other options than letting the high price ration the demand in order to balance the market.

This Wednesday saw the Bursa Malaysia derivatives Exchange’s benchmark palm oil contract trade at around 6,622 ringsgit ($1,583) per ton.

Key global veg & mineral oil prices in US dollars/tonne https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/ce/movandodnpa/GlobalOilsMar2022.png

So far in 2018, prices have increased by 38%

Fry claimed that Russia’s incursion into Ukraine could delay up to 60% of Black Sea Sunflower Oil Exports (or 8 Million Tonnes)

“About a month ago, we anticipated that Black Sea Sun Oil Exports would increase well beyond 2 million tonnes to 13.5million in 2021/22. He said that the real question now is what amount of oil will be destroyed by the invasion.