Geoffrey Smith 

Investing.com – Global markets rise upon first signs of compromise between the Russian and Ukrainian governments. But the fighting is still going on. Apple (NASDAQ) enters the high-end desktop market while launching the iPhone SE at a lower price. As a Chinese major producer, nickel trading is still halted. Russia’s central banking bans foreign currency transactions, pushing ruble further down. Labor Department releases its monthly jobs survey. U.S. data on oil inventories will also show the effect of record high gasoline prices. This is what you should know about financial markets Wednesday 9 March.

1. Signs of a diplomatic shift in Russia and Ukraine are causing markets to react positively

The mood in global markets brightened after Russia’s Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said Russia has no intention of occupying Ukraine or overthrowing its government, a clear step away from its previous position of wanting to ‘de-Nazify’ the country.

The comments came a day after Ukraine’s democratically-elected (and Jewish) President Voldymyr Zelensky said he had “cooled” on the idea of joining NATO, the prospect of which was a prime factor behind Russia’s invasion.

European stock market rose as high as 5% and the euro rebounded 0.8% at $1.0985 as of 6:15 AM ET (1115 GMT).

Diplomatic rhetoric is subject to change according to the audience and often contradicts events. Zakharova also said that Russia’s actions aren’t aimed at Ukraine’s peaceful population – despite widespread evidence of repeated shelling of refugees trying to flee through corridors it had guaranteed. Zelensky, meanwhile, told the British parliament that Ukraine would fight on “to the end” on Tuesday.

2. Russian Economic Crisis worsens. Exodus continues. The central bank restrains FX sales

Russia’s economy continues to lurch into chaos. On Tuesday night, the Central Bank banned banks selling foreign currency for six more months. It seems that they expect that the existing sanctions regime will continue at least as long. Local exchanges saw the dollar rise 12%, to 118.07 Russian rubles.

Vladimir Putin signed late Tuesday a decree restricting the exports raw materials. This was in an effort to show that he is still in control in an economic environment that has been largely driven from external forces. Both the U.S., and U.K. announced Tuesday that they would ban Russian oil imports. Meanwhile, the EU stated plans to reduce its Russian gas imports by two-thirds in a year.

The list of private companies exiting Russia continued to lengthen: McDonald’s (NYSE:) and Yum! Both KFC (NYSE:) and Pizza Hut’s owner, Brands (NYSE 🙂 announced that they would suspend their operations. PepsiCo, Starbucks (NASDAQ), and Coca-Cola (NYSE) all did the same in the last 24hrs.

3. Stocks to Open Higher; Apple and JOLTS Eyed

U.S. stock exchanges will join the global bounce later with dip-buying algorithm trading algorithms taking advantage of shifts in sentiment.

At 6:15 AM ET they were up 468 points or 1.4% while up 1.7% or 2.0%. That’s considerably more than what they lost on Tuesday.

Apple is likely to focus on stocks later, as it announced plans to increase its share of the premium desktop market late Tuesday. This was in addition to addressing concerns about the cannibalization and relaunched iPhone SE products. Electric vehicle manufacturers will also be in the spotlight, since the ripple effects of turmoil in nickel futures markets continue to impact markets. Oatly is arguably the most interesting of the few companies reporting earnings, while Adidas’ figures released earlier went some way to making up for recent volatility.

This is a very limited data calendar, as the Labor Department conducts a monthly job openings survey.

4. The Chinese nickel producer is facing an $8 billion loss and the Nickel Market remains closed

As Tsingshan, an Chinese nickel producer, made a large loss in the short position they held in London and Shanghai, Nickel trading remained shut in Shanghai as well.

According to multiple reports, Tsingshan could lose $8 billion due to its position.

London Metals Exchange was harshly criticized for cancelling trades it had made in earlier weeks. It claimed that this decision was because of the imminent threat to some members’ viability.

“The ability of the financial system to get that money to the members in London and then into the exchange I think would have been significantly stressed,” LME CEO Matt Chamberlain told Bloomberg.

5. Highs in oil are falling; U.S. stocks look up

The slight increase in market sentiment also led to lower crude oil prices.

At 6:20 AM ET futures had fallen 2.3% at $120.92/barrel, and 1.7% at $125.75/barrel

Oil’s rising price has been eased when it was realized that U.S.-UK bans on Russian imports of oil will only have symbolic meaning due to small quantities. According to data from the government, U.S. oil imports from Russia have been below 100,000 barrels per day this year.

At 10:30 ET the U.S. will publish crude inventory data. The key variable here is how record-high gasoline prices impact gasoline demand.