Anthony Nafte from CLSA says that Russia’s aggression in Ukraine won’t have any uniform impact across Southeast Asia.

Nafte said Wednesday that many countries in the region, which are net oil importers, are likely to be under “quite some pressure”, CNBC’s Street Signs Asia. The recent rises in commodity prices are “much greater” than expected and may continue, he said.

Since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014, commodity prices have risen dramatically. oil prices hitting levels not seen since 2008. Russia is the world’s largest oil producer, while Ukraine exports large quantities of wheat and other commodities.

Yet, Indonesia can “actually do reasonably good” in today’s environment, due to its commodity driven economy, says Nafte who is senior economist at CLSA.

Nafte explained that over 50% of exports from these countries are made up of commodities. “Now, your commodity prices have risen for longer,” Nafte added.

According to him, China is the 2nd largest coal supplier to Russia, and any disruptions to this supply could force Beijing to seek out Indonesia for the solution.

Nafte explained that Indonesia would benefit not only from the volume effect, but also from the price impact.

He said that Thailand’s economy is at the “other extreme”.

The economist stated that current conditions are continuing to be a challenge for Thailand’s biggest economic drivers of exports and tourism “throughout the remainder of the year”.

He stated that “this disruption of global trade will prove to be a major headwind for exports.” For the revival of tourism, 2022 may be too late. “There are still many issues.”

He said that Thailand’s balance-of-payments also has the greatest vulnerability among all emerging Southeast Asian countries.

Nafte explained that the country had a significant current account deficit because of loss in tourism revenues last year. “Their exchange rate seems particularly vulnerable,” Nafte added.