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Here’s what investors should look for


Rivian R1T, an electric pickup truck that was used during the company’s IPO, outside the Nasdaq MarketSite (New York), on Wednesday November 10, 2021.

Bing Guan | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Rivian Automotive’sEven though electric pickups or SUVs can handle any terrain, they could have difficulty with the steep 57% fall in shares so far this year.

Questions about whether Rivian’s fortunes can be turned around. missing 2021 production targetsThe markets will close on Thursday and the automaker’s fourth-quarter earnings report and 2022 guidance will be available.

Although investors will continue to monitor the financial results of last quarter, their real attention should be on this year’s guidance, and any adjustments made by the company in light of problems with global supply chains. Russia’s invasionUkraine significant cost increasesimportant raw materials to its EVs.

Wall Street will also examine Rivian’s customer reservation and the progress made in scaling up concurrent production at three of its products in Normal, Illinois. There will be electric pickups and SUVs available for customers, and an electric van to deliver the goods. First orders go out in March. Amazon, who holds a 20% share in the EV startup.

Joseph Spak, RBC Capital Markets Analyst, stated that “Ramping new programs, not just three,” is always difficult, especially for start-ups, in an investor note last Wednesday.

Spak lowered his firm’s 2022 production estimate — from roughly 43,000 vehicles to fewer than 25,000 — and slashed its price target on the stock from $165 to $116 a share.

Rivian’s shares, which were made public by a blockbuster IPO in November,Closed Wednesday at $43.95 per share. This is up 4.1% from the previous day.

This article will provide more details about Rivian and its plans for investors ahead of Thursday’s announcement on fourth-quarter earnings.

Expect losses

Rivian has a history of growing. Rivian like other speculative EV-startups is a gamble on its future.

Refinitiv’s estimates indicate that Rivian would report an expected fourth-quarter adjusted loss per stock of $1.97 based on $60m in revenue.

Rivian recorded an operational loss in the third quarter of $776million and a net loss totaling $1.23 billion.


Rivian stated that it intends to make 150,000 electric vehicles by 2023. That’s going to be a heavy task, given the company at the end of last year was averaging about 50 vehicles a week – an annual pace of 2,600 vehicles.

According to the company, capital spending is expected to reach $8 billion in 2023.

John Murphy, BofA Securities analyst has indicated that Rivian’s near-term success is measured more by production trends and orders than financials.

Refintiv consensus estimations for 2022 put Rivian’s full-year adjusted lost per share at 4.97, and its revenue at around $3.16billion.

Production snags

Shares Rivian nosedived in December afterRobert Scaringe (CEO) revealed that company’s 2021 production goal would be missed due to supply chain challenges and difficulties in increasing production of batteries for the cars. Since then, the shares are down 60%.

He stated that “Ramping up such a complex production system is difficult,” in December. “We are ramping up as expected. We have a high-automated line that is able to handle the battery constraints. This doesn’t pose long-term issues for us.

A electric Amazon delivery vehicle from Rivian cruises along the streets with the Hollywood sign behind it.


Investors and analysts will be interested in knowing if the company was able to resolve any of these problems.

Rivian stopped production at the Illinois plant for 10 consecutive days to make repairs and improve processes, Scaringe stated last month at a Wolfe Research conference.

He stated, “We now are of course reaping some of the benefits of some line improvements that were made”,

The company stated previously that it was planning to build a second line for battery packs assembly at its plant early in 2022.

Costs of commodities

Nickel’s rapidly rising costs are a major reason for concern. critical ingredient in most long-range EV batteriesRivian will be discussing this issue during its earnings call. Russia is an important global supplier of nickel and its price has risen as investors consider the impact of heavy sanctions that were imposed after the invasion of Ukraine.

Against that backdrop, Rivian last week announced steep price increases – about $12,000 – on higher-end “quad-motor” versions of its R1T pickup and R1S SUV, saying that rising costs made the move necessary.

Scaringe wrote to stakeholders in March, “Since we first set our pricing structure, but most importantly in recent months,” The costs for components and other materials used in building vehicles have increased significantly. Everything from seats to semiconductors, sheet metal and sheet metal has become more costly. This is why we’ve seen the average vehicle price in America increase by more than 30% between 2018-2018.

Rivian initially had applied price increases retroactively for vehicles ordered prior to March. This plan wasn’t implemented quickly. walked back after an outcry from customers. Scaringe apologized for the decision in a letter.


Wall Street considers vehicle reservation as an indicator for demand for new cars. This is a new trend in the automobile industry that was sparked by TeslaReservations for vehicles

Rivian had 71,000 confirmed reservations as of December 15, compared to 55,400 units November. Rivian previously stated that it would complete these orders before the end 2023.

The impact of the price changes on reservations is not clear. Rivian promised that it would reinstate orders for customers who cancelled a pre-order following the price hike with the original pricing, configuration and delivery times. It maintained its higher prices for reservations made after March 1.

Spak from RBC stated last week that increasing the cost (20%) to early adopters is not a way to build brand loyalty. Now the debate is about whether orders will be slowened as more vehicles are available ($90k+) or encourage cross-shopping.

Wall Street will monitor Rivian’s commercial van production and Amazon inventory to ensure that there are no consumer concerns. Rivian’s biggest stakeholder, retail giant Wal-Mart, has ordered 100,000 electric vans. Delivery is expected to be in 2025.

—CNBC’s John Rosevear Michael BloomThis report was contributed by you.