Russian rouble ticks up in thin volumes, outlook bleak -Breaking
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© Reuters. View of Russian roubles in this illustration taken March 25, 2021. REUTERS/Maxim Shemetov/Illustration(Reuters) – The rouble rose in Moscow and the international FX markets after Thursday’s first formal talks between Russia, Ukraine’s foreign ministers. However, there was no agreement on a ceasefire.
After Russia invaded Ukraine in April, international sanctions have caused the currency to lose as much as half of its value against the dollar.
Moscow closed at 118.5 roubles per dollar. This is 1.3% more than Wednesday’s close, but down 36.5% since mid-February. The Moscow Exchange, used by the major Russian banks, saw it fall to a new intraday record low of 121.5275.
The rouble was closed in Moscow at 125 against the euro, up 1.6% after falling to a new intraday record low of 132.4175. The rouble is now down 32.4% over the past year.
International markets saw bids at 127.75 dollars and 140.4 euros, which was slightly higher than the previous day.
Christian Lawrence (Rabobank’s senior market strategist) said, “We have had a little bit of a reverse today but it needs to be placed in the context that everything is going and volumes are so lighter that we don’t give too much thought into that.”
Bond trading and the stock exchange are still closed.
Talks between Dmytro Kuneba and Sergei Lavrov, top Ukrainian diplomats and Russian diplomats, failed to make much progress in Turkey.
Kuleba claimed that no ceasefire was made to enable aid to civilians. Lavrov, however, accused the West for inflaming matters by providing weapons and ammunition to Ukraine.
Russian assets have suffered from the economic sanctions that were imposed on Russia.
Cristian Maggio from TD Securities, Head of Emerging Markets Strategy said: “There’s a fairly wide spread between (Moscow Exchange), pricing and what would be seen in the West. That gives you very little confidence about it.”
On Thursday, there were more restrictions and sanctions globally.
Britain has imposed sanctions on Roman Abramovich of Chelsea Football Club, a wealthy Russian man. The Bank for International Settlements, the global main central bank umbrella organization, suspended Russia’s central bank from any meetings or services.
With the possibility of Russia defaulting upon $40 billion in external bonds, markets have been keeping close tabs on their debt repayments. This would mark Russia’s first serious default on external bonds since 1917 Bolshevik revolution.
According to Russia’s TASS news agency, Anton Siluanov, Finance Minister said Russia would service external obligations with roubles if the foreign exchange accounts of central banks and government are still blocked by western sanctions.
However, 5-year credit default Swaps (the cost of insuring exposure to Russia’s sovereign debt) reached a new record 3,176 basis points.
According to IFR, Rosneft, a Russian state-owned oil firm, paid back a bond in U.S. Dollars on Wednesday. Norilsk Nickel (the world’s largest producer of nickel and palladium), also made a payment using a U.S.dollar bond.
Moscow has to make $107 Million in coupon payments for two sovereign bonds that are hard-currency on March 16
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