Maurice and Tamman

(Reuters] – A Russian invasion of Ukraine is threatening millions of tiny spring-time seeds that will emerge from the stalks of winter wheat. The farmers will have to provide food for those plants soon; if they don’t, far fewer “tillers”, which could lead to a decline in wheat production, leading millions of poor people around the world without access.

After a short growing period last fall, the wheat went dormant for winter. Before the grain can be brought back to life again, however, the farmers often apply fertilizer to the main stalks to stimulate the growth of the tillers. A stalk may have up to four tillers. This increases the wheat stalk’s yield exponentially.

Ukrainian farmers, who boasted a record-breaking crop of grain last year, say that they are now short on fertilizer and pesticides. And even if they had enough of those materials, they can’t get enough fuel to power their equipment, they add.

Elena Neroba, a Kyiv-based business development manager at grain brokerage Maxigrain, said Ukraine’s winter wheat yields could fall by 15% compared to recent years if fertilizers aren’t applied now. Farmers warn that the situation could get much worse.

Reuters was told by some Ukrainian farmers that their wheat yields might be reduced in half and possibly more. This could have implications for many countries beyond Ukraine. Since recent years, many countries, including Egypt, Yemen, Lebanon, and Egypt have relied on Ukrainian wheat. Wheat prices have already risen by half a percent in recent months due to the war.

As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, food prices all over the globe have been on the rise for several months. According to the U.N. agency for food, world food prices rose more than 24% last year after hitting a record-breaking high in February. The seven most advanced countries’ agriculture ministers are scheduled to meet Friday to discuss the effects of Russia’s invasion and ways to stabilize the food market.

Russia and Ukraine are two of the largest wheat exporters in the world, with about one third of all global exports going through Russia.

Svein Tore Holsether, president of Norway-based Yara International (OTC:), the world’s largest maker of nitrogen-based fertilizers, said he is worried that tens of millions of people will suffer food shortages because of the farming crisis in Ukraine. “For me, it’s not whether we are moving into a global food crisis,” he said. “It’s how large the crisis will be.”

Ukrainian officials believe that the country can still have a good year. A lot of this hope lies with the farmers of the West of Ukraine, who, as far as we know, are still very distant from the camera.

But officials are taking measures to protect domestic supplies to ensure Ukraine’s population gets fed – posing another possible hit to export shipments. Roman Leshchenko, the Agriculture Minister said Tuesday that the country had banned the export of wheat and other staples. Leshchenko has acknowledged the threat to Ukraine’s food supply and that the government was doing what it can to help farmers.

“We understand that food for the entire state depends on what will be in the fields,” he said in televised remarks Monday.

Moscow asserts it is conducting an operation military special in Ukraine to demilitarize the country and capture terrorists. However, there are documented incidents in which it attacked hospitals, apartment blocks, railway stations and other civil infrastructure.

Grain exports are a cornerstone of Ukraine’s economy.

The Ukrainian Agricultural Council chairman Dykun Andriy said that farmers need to plant more crops over the coming weeks. He estimates that about 1,000 Ukrainian farmers are cultivating 5 million hectares.

Andriy said that fuel was the main problem right now. Unless farmers can get diesel to run their equipment, spring farmwork will be impossible and this year’s harvests doomed. “Farmers are desperate,” he said. “There is a big risk that we don’t have enough food to feed our people.”

Maxigrain’s Neroba said farmers are facing fuel shortages because military needs take priority.

Oleksandr Chumak (a Ukrainian farmer) said there is very little activity in his fields. He lives about 200 kilometers north of Odessa, the Black Sea port. On his 3,000-hectare (about 7,500 acres), he cultivates wheat, corn and sunflowers. Although he claimed he had sufficient fuel to transport his equipment, he also said that he didn’t have enough fertilizer and herbicides.

“Usually we have maybe six to seven tons (of wheat) per hectare. This year, I think that if we get three tons per hectare, it will be very good,” Chumak said. While he believes that Ukrainian farmers will eventually find a way of producing enough food for their people, Chumak stated that they are not expecting much exportable.

According to Chumak, friends from Ukraine were forced to use a ditch filled with diesel fuel after the Russian attack on a train that spilled fuel oil from multiple tankers. Chumak explained that his friends in Kherson are also scavenging diesel left behind by abandoned Russian tanker convoys.

He is currently preparing for an imminent Russian attack. “I live in Odessa. Every day I see rockets fly over my house.”

Val Sigaev of R.J. O’Brien, a Kyiv grain broker, stated that it was unclear how much spring farming, including fertilizing and planting, would still be possible. Fertilizer prices rose due to high prices of – an important input – so many farmers delayed buying.

“Some people think we could plant as much as half of the crop,” Sigaev said. “Others say that only the West will see plantings and what is produced will be strictly for Ukrainian needs.”

Kherson in South Ukraine, which was captured by Russia on Feb. 24, is facing a particularly difficult situation. Spring-like weather adds to farmers’ urgency, if they don’t tend to their fields now this year’s harvest will be a bust.

Andrii Pastushenko, the general manager for a farm covering 1,500 hectares just west of the capital city near the Dnipro River mouth is also the chief of staff. The farm sowed around 1,000 ha of wheat and barley last fall. His farm workers need to get into those fields now, but can’t, he says, and they’ve lost access to fuel. “We’re completely cut off from the civilized world and the rest of Ukraine.”

Many of Pastushenko’s 80 employees cannot travel to the farm to work because they are located a few miles north. Problems for the manager are made more difficult by the dryness of the region, which means that his fields will need to be irrigated. Fuel is also required.

Pastushenko is unique in that he has a stockpile of 50-metric tons nitrogen-based fertilizer. With the fighting all around him, however, he’s not sure that’s such a good thing: Fertilizer is highly explosive. “If something drops from a helicopter, it could blow the whole place,” he said.

He expressed concern that the harvest would be low. His wheat and barley yielded approximately five tonnes per hectare last year. If he doesn’t spray insecticide – which he says he can’t get – and spread fertilizer, he doubts he’ll get a third of that amount.

“I’ve no idea whether we’ll be able to harvest something,” he said. “Something will come off the ground, but it won’t be enough to feed our cattle and pay our staff.”

About 150 km west of Pastushenko’s farm is the Black Sea port of Odessa, which remains under Ukrainian control. In peacetime, much of Ukrainian agricultural exports find their way onto ships at the port, Ukraine’s busiest. Russian troops have taken control of the city and no ships leave today.

Much of Ukraine’s harvest was due to be exported to North Africa, the Middle East, and the Levant. According to the United Nations’ World Food Program (WFP), Ukraine supplies Lebanon with more than half of its imported wheat, Tunisia imports 42 % and Yemen nearly a quarter. Ukraine has grown to become WFP’s largest supplier of food.

Rising food prices can cause serious problems in certain countries.

Egypt heavily subsidises bread because it has grown increasingly dependent upon Russian and Ukrainian wheat in the last decade. Sikandra Kurdi (a Dubai-based researcher fellow at The International Food Policy Research Institute), said that as wheat prices rise, there will be pressure for the government to increase bread prices.

The country’s food subsidy program currently costs the government about $5.5 billion annually. Nearly two-thirds can currently buy five loafs of round bread each day for just 50 cents per month.

Rising wheat prices will affect other poor people who receive similar subsidies. The overthrowning of Omar al-Bashir, the head of State in Sudan, was due to protests about rising bread prices.

Kurdi stated that rising prices for food will lead to increased debt by governments or higher consumer prices in countries with large subventions.