Refugees flee to Poland with economic political impact
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After crossing the border between Ukraine and Poland at the Medyka border crossing in southeastern Poland on March 14, 2022, a child welcomes the bus driver.
Louisa Gouliamaki | AFP | Getty Images
Russia invaded Ukraine in less than 3 weeks Ukraine has sent 3 million people fleeing their homes to neighboring countries — with still millions more displaced domestically — in what has quickly become Europe’s worst migrant crisis since World War II.
While the majority have been compassionately welcomed by host countries rejecting President Vladimir Putin’s indiscriminate attack, the sudden influx of people is having a profound impact on the European landscape — with potentially significant consequences.
Poland is the best example of this impact.
Poland is Ukraine’s nearest neighbor
Since the start of the war on Feb. 24, Poland has welcomed over 1.8 million refugees — almost twice the 1 million authorities had anticipatedIncreasing its population by 4.8%
Due to the 530 km shared land border and many other historical, cultural, economic and diplomatic ties, Ukraine is an ideal entry point for Ukrainians. In fact, there are already large numbers of Ukrainians living in Poland. This is due to an earlier wave of immigration. Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea.
Ukrainian nationals who fled Ukraine and arrived in Krakow to complete formalities to stay in EU are now in line at the Consulate General in Ukraine, Krakow.
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The government is facing significant pressure as more people need assistance from humanitarian agencies than originally estimated.
“First of all, everyone knew exactly where they wanted go. There were some people they liked to be with. [in Poland]Dominika Choylewska (head of communications, Caritas Polska), said that they are assisting migrants in Poland at reception points. Przemysl is 12km from the Ukrainian border.
Already, we can see more people arriving without any destination final.
Dominika Chylewska
Caritas Poland, Head of Communications
Some others planned to continue their travels to Berlin and Prague as well as Tallinn.
Chylewska stated, “Now we see that more people are coming to no final destination.”
Assessing financial need and long-term status
It raises serious questions regarding the fate of the migrants over time and the EU’s support for host countries, such as Poland.
Adriano Bosoni from intelligence firm RANE said, “It places the EU in a bind.” He also highlighted decisions that the bloc faces around permanent residency and financial aid.
On Monday, March 14th, 2022, lunch is served at a restaurant in the former hospital that was used as temporary shelter for refugees from Ukraine.
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To date, 500 million euro ($547million) has been allocated by the EU to Ukraine’s humanitarian aid. However, estimates by the Economist Intelligence Unit indicate that support for 5 million refugees will cost 50 billion euro in 2022.
The bloc has also activated a Temporary Protection Directive, which grants Ukrainian nationals up to three year residency in the host country.
However, the longer-term decision will depend on whether it offers permanent asylum for migrants and how it may redistribute these across the bloc in order to lessen the burden of primary hosts such as Poland, Hungary Slovakia and Romania.
“The [Polish]The EU will provide extensive support to the EU so that the government can cope with the crisis. Alessandro Cugnasca is the country risk manager for EIU. This assistance includes both financial and refugee resettlements.
Shifting Polish demographics
Poland, which has a population of 38 million, had already seen a change in demographics before the crisis.
The EU joined Eastern Europe in 2004. Since then, the country has seen high numbers of migrants from Eastern European countries. These skilled workers are now moving westward to find better opportunities and higher wages.
Meanwhile, a falling fertility rate — driven, like many of its Western peers, by greater sex education, higher female workforce participation, and increased urbanization — has added to the country’s overall population decline.
In the medium term, there is the possibility of political instability from the crisis.
Alessandro Cugnasca
Country risk manager for EIU
That could make Poland — already one of Europe’s fastest growing economies before Covid — a grateful recipient of long-term, skilled workers, said Bosoni.
He said that “importing millions young Ukrainian workers to your workforce and make a contribution makes economic sense,” and cited the high educational level of most migrants from Ukraine, which includes mostly children and women.
However, it is important to note the risks that Poland faces from its neighbours.
ONR, a far-right party in Poland protested against the application of the policy of welcome to foreign migrants arriving from Syria or Iraq on September 12, 2015.
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It is possible for migration to become a politically hot topic. The 2015 Europe migrant crises was believed to have helped far-right groups that spread across Europe in the subsequent years. At that time, Poland was reluctant in accepting migrants, largely from Syria and North Africa — a fact that has not gone unnoticed in its response to Ukraine.
“Polish citizens remain very supportive of Ukrainian refugees. Cugnasca from EIU said that “the crisis can cause political instability over time.”
He said that war refugees will, and not labor migrants, require substantial financial support from state. This could cause a backlash later on.
Awaiting conflict resolution
The longer-term implications of this will, however, depend heavily on how the outcome of the conflictAnalysts agreed.
The likelihood that migrants will return home to their families is much lower if Russia invades, as some fear.
However, if the West allies achieve a peaceful resolution of the conflict, which would restore a sovereign Ukraine to its former glory, most migrants will be able to choose to go home to begin the long task of rebuilding the country they have been ravaged by war.
Bosoni stated that most people who have left want to return. They aren’t economic migrants; they are refugees from war and death.
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