WASHINGTON — WASHINGTON — The exact consequences of China supporting Russia’s war on Ukraine remains a mystery, just days after Jake Sullivan, national security advisor to Jake, warned him.

Jen Psaki, White House Press Secretary, stated to reporters that they would have the conversation with China directly and not through media. 

Sullivan had been “very direct about consequences,” Psaki stated during Monday’s meeting in Rome with Yang Jiechi, China’s highest foreign policy official. 

She said, “But in terms any potential consequences or impacts, we’ll guide those through private diplomatic channels as of this point.”

Concerns over the reaction of Western Allies to China and Chinese Companies attempting to help Moscow evade sanctions has increased as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine nears its fourth week. This adds uncertainty to markets already struggling to recover from. collapse of the Russian economy.

This uncertainty is exacerbated by the new memory of events leading up to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Psaki made a statement on Feb. 20 that stated the U.S. is “ready to impose rapid and severe consequences” should Russia carry out its plans.

Analysts didn’t believe that Europe and the United States could reach agreement on some of the harshest sanctions. They did and they caught Wall Street and Moscow off guard.

China: No one is going to repeat the same error.

Moscow is rumored to have asked Beijing for economic and military assistance in order to wage the war against Ukraine. Both governments however, deny that request. 

China does not want to be involved in an economic war with Moscow or the rest of developed nations.

China is not part of the crisis and it does not want sanctions to be applied to China.” foreign minister Wang Yi said during a phone callMonday was spent with Jose Manuel Albares (Spanish foreign minister). 

According to Wang, Wang maintained that China has the right “to safeguard its legitimate rights” an official readout of the call from Beijing.

Over the course of the week it became clearer that Beijing is a vital economic link for Moscow.

Russian finance minister Anton Siluanov said Sunday that his country’s economic “partnership with China will still allow us to maintain the cooperation that we have achieved … but also increase it in an environment where Western markets are closing” to Russian exports.”

The “increased cooperation” from China may take many forms. Some would flagrantly break sanctions on Russia and trigger an immediate response from the United States. However, experts believe that Beijing may take legal steps to counter the sanctions. The United States will have to resort to soft-power strategies to stop them.

This could involve Russia buying high-tech American equipment and selling it to Moscow, in violation of U.S. export control laws.

Businesses are at great risk from this. These sanctions apply to all companies worldwide that use U.S. software and components. This includes most of those in China.

Gina Raimondo (Commerce Secretary) recently discussed the potential consequences for a large Chinese semiconductor firm if it is discovered that it has been selling chips to Russia without American export restrictions. 

“We could basically shut down.” [the company]They are prevented from using our equipment, our software and will be unable to lower their prices.,” Raimondo said in an interview with The New York Times on March 8.

Raimondo’s case shows how the U.S. can use its economic power in order to render any company’s decision, to aid Russia, to evade sanctions, fatal.

According to Martin Chorzempa (a Peterson Institute for International Economics research fellow), “The majority of large Chinese institutions are unwilling to accept the risk of falling under U.S. sanctions.”

“China looks as though it will complain, but not comply,” he stated. toldThe Washington Post.

One way to improve cooperation between Russia, China and Russia is for Beijing, Alexander Gabuev (senior fellow, Russia chair, Carnegie Moscow Center) said Monday on CNBC’s Capital Connection that Beijing could buy Russian oil and natural gas at a low price.

He stated that Russia would not be in violation of U.S. or EU sanctions but it will provide a substantial material support to its regime.

This type of Sino-Russian cooperation requires a new response by the United States. The United States must work with European allies in order to highlight the long-term threat to China’s image on the international stage.

“Valdimir Putin is … the bad guy in the eyes of the world,” and Moscow is fast becoming a “pariah state,” said Robert Daly, director of the Kissinger Institute on China and the U.S.

“Russia, Cuba, North Korea, Venezuela, Iran — this isn’t really the international club that most Chinese people aspire to be part of,” Daly said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Tuesday.

Daly stated that China is moving in the right direction as civilian casualties mount in Ukraine and televisions broadcast footage of bombarded residential areas and courageous resistance fighters in Ukraine.

This doesn’t mean China is going to end its alliance with the United States. Gabuev from the Carnegie Center stated that Beijing will “religiously observe” US and EU sanctions. However, they will “will do anything possible to help Moscow.”