Aidan Lewis, Sarah El Safty

CAIRO, Reuters – Mahmoud Farag earns 1500 Egyptian dollars ($95) per month from his job as a Cairo frontman. But that’s not enough for his five children.

Before Russia invaded Ukraine, food prices in Egypt had been climbing. As Black Sea wheat exports from the Black Sea are cut and global markets rise, bread is becoming more costly, an important symbol for many Egyptians.

Families who already have suffered years of hardship are now facing financial pressure. In a country that nearly one third lives below the official poverty level, and where many others struggle just to survive, this is adding more stress.

The cost of one packet of unsubsidised bread has gone up by 25% since Russia invaded its neighbor. However, prices for other commonly consumed food such as oil and eggs are rising.

Attia Hamed, of Cairo Chamber of Commerce stated that the flour price has risen up to 15%.

Farag (52), said that she eats less to ensure her children don’t go hungry. Her daily bread budget currently covers eight flat loafs instead of the usual 10. We cook good meals every 3 days and eat bread and cheese the rest of week.

Egypt, which imports more than 60% of its wheat abroad, is the most significant wheat importer in the world. Russia and Ukraine were responsible for around 80%.

As sanctions against Russia and fighting in Ukraine block shipping, traders have to scramble for supplies elsewhere.

One trader from the region said, “If you want to find another, the prices will be vastly differ.” He referred to the volatility of futures contracts, which underpin the market.

Nearly 50% more than February’s lows, the contract for May delivery wheat is on the Paris-based futures exchange.

SOCIAL RISK

According to an International Food Policy Research Institute study, recent price rises could almost double the annual state expenditure on wheat imports, to $5.7 billion. This is a significant amount that the government may struggle to recover as the cost subsidised bread hasn’t changed much since 1980s, even though the loaf size has decreased.

In 1977, an attempt to increase the cost of Egypt’s sub-subsidized bread sparked protests. Former President Hosni Moubarak was confronted with unrest over wheat shortages in 2008. Three years later, the most popular chant was “Bread freedom and social justice” during his uprising.

The World Bank and other international organizations are warning of similar unrest in North Africa, and Middle East due to rising food and energy prices.

In recent weeks, the government tried to assure Egyptians that the country’s wheat resources and crops would be sufficient to supply the subsidised bread for around two-thirds for at most eight months.

In order to increase the yield of its local wheat crop, it has raised the amount it pays farmers. The company also said that they are budgeting for grain imports at a higher price, in spite growing public pressure.

Officials believe that subvention reforms may be part of the 2022/23 budget. However, the scope and extent of the reforms are still unclear.

All other breads are made from wheat that is grown in a private market, where traders claim there are less reserves.

Authorities are looking to curb the rise in prices and have taken at least 12 suspects into detention. On Tuesday, President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi instructed the government that it set the price for unsubsidised bread.

For three months, all exports of wheat, flour, and other food including lentils or fava beans were prohibited

Prices will rise across the economy as more costly commodities become available. The headline inflation rate accelerated to nearly 33% in February. This is likely to accelerate further in March as people bulk-buy ahead of Ramadan, the holy month.

Timothy Kaldas is a Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy policy fellow. He said that although these new pressures may feed into simmering frustrations about living conditions they will not lead to public protests. Public demonstrations are effectively prohibited now after a lengthy crackdown against political dissent.

Kaldas stated, “We’ve witnessed Egyptians take to the streets under incredible strain,”