SHANGHAI, (Reuters) – Nearly a quarter (25%) of Chinese high-yield properties have defaulted this year on their bonds, Goldman Sachs analysts (NYSE:) estimated. This highlights liquidity stress in Beijing as it tries to stabilize the sector.

Chakki and Kenneth Ho estimated the default rate for year to date at 5.5%. They wrote Friday in a note that this was a low number because developers are using bond exchanges in order to prevent defaults.

They stated that if we assumed all bonds issued by issuers who have entered into maturity extension or bond exchange transactions were in default, then the year-to-date default rate would be 23.4%.

Ho and Ting maintained a sector default forecast of 19% through 2022. This includes a bull case at 10.5% and a bear case of 31.6%.

They stated that credit stress has increased, but China’s policymakers had also reiterated their accommodative policy position, and added that the risks were clearly tilted in favor of the downside.

The sector’s bonds that are past their maturity date this year have seen 31% enter into maturity extensions or bond exchange transactions; 26% defaulted, 42% were fully repaid, and 26% have reached maturity.

They said that more bond exchanges will be possible and they expect to see defaults. There are $2.3 billion due in April and $3 billion in each of June, July, and August.

China’s economic tsar Liu He said Wednesday that Vice Premier Liu He needed to lower the risks to the country’s property sector and suggested measures to help facilitate a different development model.