WASHINGTON, (Reuters) – Massive food and energy price increases resulting from Russia’s invasion in Ukraine will cause over 40 million people to be living in extreme poverty, according to the Center for Global Development, (CGDEV), warning against sanctions and export restrictions on Russian food production.

In an analysis blog https://www.cgdev.org/blog/price-spike-caused-ukraine-war-will-push-over-40-million-poverty-how-should-we-respond, the Washington-based think tank said food commodity prices since the start of the conflict have risen above levels experienced in price spikes in 2007 and 2010. The think tank cited World Bank Research that showed the spike in 2007 may have driven as many as 155million people into poverty and another research that indicated 44 million were forced into poverty during the 2010 episode.

CGDEV researchers concluded that price increases have been seen in the past of an equal magnitude to those experienced in 2010. We also found evidence suggesting at most 40 million people would be driven into poverty by the 2022 increase.

Extreme poverty, according to the World Bank is defined as living below $1.90 per hour.

According to the researchers, Ukraine and Russia are responsible for over 25% of all world wheat exports. These countries include Turkey, Bangladesh and Pakistan. But prices are expected to rise as more importers look for alternatives.

Low-income households spend nearly half their income on food. Higher prices mean that they will have to make tough choices about food and other essentials.

CGDEV’s blog called on international financial institutions and development agencies to quickly respond to an increase in humanitarian need around the globe. Wealthy governments must also provide additional funding for the institutions in order to avoid a food shortage.