By Andrew Mills

DOHA, (Reuters) – Russia’s invasion and occupation of Ukraine offers Qatar diplomatic and business opportunities to increase energy sales to the West. Qatar also has an opportunity to strengthen its alliance and support Washington in light of US tensions with Gulf Arab countries.

Qatar sought a neutral position on the conflict but, while refusing to take sides, has shown through its responses that it is willing to provide significant economic and political assistance to Western allies.

Qatar suggested that it might send more gas to Europe in the future, as many European energy importers are looking for ways to reduce their dependence on Russia.

Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and other countries have insisted against Western demands for rapid increases in oil output in order to control a rise in crude prices due to the conflict in Ukraine.

Two of the most powerful Gulf Arab states, Qatar and Saudi Arabia, sought years ago to isolate Qatar. However, their relationship with Washington has been strained over recent years due partly to concern about U.S. security obligations to Gulf Arab partner countries.

Qatar hosts the U.S. largest airbase in the Middle East. The United States was recently designated as a major non NATO ally. This is a distinction neither Saudi Arabia nor the UAE have received.

It was able to carry messages between Washington and Tehran throughout the Iran nuclear negotiations and sought out a position.

On Monday Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani met his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov. A source familiar with the Iran negotiations told Reuters that talks focused on lifting the barriers to the completion of the Iran nuclear agreement.

According to a source, the “JCPOA” discussion was discussed in coordination with Washington before the Qatari foreign minister visited Moscow.

A day before his Moscow trip, Sheikh Mohammed spoke with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken. He also met his counterparts from France (which is part of the Iran talks alongside the United States, Britain and China).

Lavrov relented from previous demands, which had caused negotiations to restart the Iran nuclear agreement to be stalled.

It appears that Qatar played an important role in the discussions at the fringes of Iran’s talks. Mehran Kamrava from Georgetown University, Qatar said that it is unclear how direct or consequential this role was.

“NOT TRYING to HEDGE”

Doha like Riyadh or Abu Dhabi has increased its economic and diplomatic ties with Moscow over the past few years. However, Doha still has a close relationship with Washington.

The UAE abstained last month from a U.S.-drafted United Nations Security Council Resolution, while President Joe Biden has not yet spoken directly to Saudi Arabia’s defacto leader Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. However, he did meet Qatar’s Sheikh Tamim bin Hamid al-Thani at White House in January.

Qatar does not seek to hedge as Saudi Arabia or the UAE. The bottom line is that this tiny country, which has a huge oil field and is expected to make massive money from it, believes it only has one source of protection. Martin Indyk (a Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, and former U.S. Middle East peace ambassador) said that the United States is the only source of protection.

Qatar, one of the largest global producers of liquid nitrogen (LNG), is also one of the most wealthy countries per capita. It is home to just three million people, with 85% of these being foreign workers.

Qatar played an important role in hosting peace talks between Afghanistan and the United States that culminated in the U.S. withdrawal plan for 2020.

This airport is still an important link between the West and the Taliban-led government. It hosts the West’s Afghan diplomat missions, and can even fly officials to Kabul. Qatar manages and controls the airport.

Qatar is willing to take advantage of any chance that comes along. Andreas Krieg from King’s College, London said that they are promoting themselves as an extension to U.S. foreign- and security policy in ways no other Gulf country does.

A ‘NORMOUS OPPORTUNITY.’

Some wondered how Qatar could find buyers after Qatar announced its intention to increase LNG production until 2027. Now, however, with strong demand and high costs, Western leaders have urged Qatar to improve supplies to Europe. They are concerned about Russia’s current supply of 30-40%.

Justin Alexander, Director of Khalij Economics (a Gulf-focused consulting firm), stated that “the renewed interest in diversifying European gaz supplies presents an immense opportunity for Qatari to sell the vast new supplies coming ontostream.”

Qatari energy minister Saad al-Kaabi has recently stated that new LNG volumes will be used by customers in Asia, Europe and Africa. This shift is a departure from previous messaging that extra gas was only for Asia.

However Qatar has not yet announced new long term European contracts, which Alexander says will take time to negotiate and require new infrastructure to receive Qatar’s LNG tankers.

Andrew Mills reports and writes; Dominic Evans edits. William Maclean is the editor.