By Ann Saphir

(Reuters) – Raphael Bostic, President of Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank said Monday that he had planned six rate increases this year and two in 2023. This is a smaller number than his peers because he fears for the impact of Russia’s invasion on America’s economy.

Bostic stated that “Getting high inflation rates under control” is his top concern for 2022. He made these remarks in comments prepared for presentation to the National Association for Business Economics. Bostic also noted the importance of addressing the significant imbalance between the labor supply and the demand.

However, he said that the elevated level of uncertainty was front-of-mind in his mind, which has tempered my belief that an extremly aggressive rate track is right now.

In an attempt to control inflation, which is now at 6% (three times the target), last week’s Fed rate hike was its first since 2018. It raised them from zero in order to raise their interest rates.

Fed policymakers anticipate rates increasing to at least 1.9% this year. That pace corresponds to a quarter point rise at each year’s six Fed meetings. There are four additional Fed meetings next year.

Bostic stated Monday that the labor market was tight and noted it is crucial to balance supply with demand. He also said that prices for commodities, such as wheat and oil, will continue to rise due to the conflict in Ukraine. However, businesses can retool their supply chain, which will increase pressure.

Each of these conditions can exacerbate inflation already at a high level. However, the risk “goes both ways”, with uncertainties fueled by conflict likely to lower economic activity.

Bostic explained that should demand fall in the face economic uncertainty and removal of monetary accommodation, then there may be a shorter path than I am currently projecting. There are many other developments like shifts in supply strategy that may lead to higher prices and a more difficult policy path.

Bostic spoke at the beginning of a conference, just hours before Fed Chair Jerome Powell was also scheduled to speak. Investors will closely be monitoring the event for new clues about the future rate path.